Solana price prediction: Will sideways action continue? SOL drops 1.93%

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Solana slides 1.93% to $86.50 today

Highlights

Solana saw a reversal to 700,000 SOL in net exchange outflows after weeks of deposits, despite ongoing realized losses since February.
Institutional participation rose as DeFi total value locked reached $465 million and net inflows to Solana products totaled $989.78 million, following recent U.S. regulatory clarification.
SOL trades below key moving averages with technicals broadly bearish, while the expected five-day range is $83.00 to $91.50 and further declines remain more probable.

Institutional inflows rise as regulatory clarity meets persistent sell-off

After March 17, exchange outflows of 700,000 SOL were reported as holders reversed weeks of net deposits, with realized losses ongoing since mid-February. Institutional exposure to Solana was noted to have increased as on-chain activity and DeFi total value locked reached a record $465 million, alongside cumulative net inflows in institutional products of $989.78 million. Recent U.S. SEC and CFTC actions clarified regulatory status for digital commodities, which accompanied greater institutional participation in Solana, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals diverge as oscillators flag cautious bias

Momentum indicators point to a mixed picture: MACD on D1 suggests a strong buy, but both ADX D1 (20.42) and W1 confirm weak and declining trend strength. RSI indicates mild selling pressure in both daily (46.21) and weekly (33.46) timeframes, while Stoch RSI and BBP D1 show pronounced oversold conditions, hinting at buyer exhaustion but also potential for a near-term bounce. However, the current price is mid-range within today’s $85.49 – $87.28 band after opening with no significant gap and slipping 1.93% intraday, reflecting moderate volatility and continued pressure after the open. There is a clear divergence between daily MACD strength and broader weakness in other oscillators, leaving intraday tone guarded and momentum signals conflicted.

Downside risk prevails as resistance caps near-term bullish attempts

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $83.00 to $91.50. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained upward move, making further declines more likely. The baseline scenario is sideways movement, with price consolidating below resistance. In the bullish scenario, SOL would need to break above $87.40, turning resistance into support and possibly retesting $91.50. Under the bearish scenario, a drop below $85.00 could open the path toward the lower end of the volatility band relative to current levels near $83.00, confirming seller dominance.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views Solana as fundamentally well-positioned given rising institutional inflows and regulatory clarity. He notes that persistent selling pressure remains a challenge, but the surge in DeFi activity and long-term adoption are supportive undercurrents. While short-term momentum is mixed, macro and sentiment factors lean moderately positive. The analyst sees a sideways or slightly bearish consolidation as most probable for now, but believes a break above $87.40 could quickly shift the outlook. "If buyers reclaim $87.40 and sustain inflows, Solana can regain upward momentum in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana faced persistent long-term selling pressure and regulatory uncertainty, resulting in a cautious market outlook. The current review shows that while institutional interest and on-chain activity have increased, momentum signals remain mixed, making the $85.00 level a key inflection point for traders to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.