Solana price prediction: Further downside risk as SOL recovery faces strong resistance

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Solana rises 1.04% to $83.61 today

Highlights

US Solana spot ETFs saw $4.24 million in net outflows, the first weekly withdrawal since early February, signaling shifting investor sentiment.
SEC and CFTC have classified Solana as a digital commodity, easing regulatory risks and supporting future institutional participation despite ongoing network concerns.
SOL trades below key moving averages with multiple bearish technical signals; near-term range expected between $80.00 and $86.50, downside risk remains elevated.

Bearish positioning grows as Solana ETFs see rare outflows

During the week ending March 29, 2026, US Solana spot ETFs recorded $4.24 million in net outflows, marking the first weekly outflows since early February. On the same day, Solana-focused ETFs saw $1.04 million in daily outflows, with accompanying sharp derivatives sell-off as negative funding rates and a long-to-short ratio below 1 pointed to increased bearish positioning among retail traders. Both the US SEC and CFTC have moved to classify Solana as a digital commodity, which reduces legal uncertainties affecting staking and airdrops and supports greater institutional participation. Staking yields remain at 6–8% annually while the network continues to face congestion and outage concerns.

Short-term bounce diverges from persistent bearish momentum cues

Momentum signals are weak, as both MACD and ADX show a selling bias on the D1 chart, with ADX suggesting low trend strength. Multiple oscillators, including RSI (39.3), CCI (−181.43), Stoch RSI, and BBP (−3.41), all indicate oversold conditions and overall seller dominance intraday. The AO also confirms bearish momentum. The daily session opened at $81.49 (a minimal gap down from the previous close) and climbed to $83.61, showing a modest rise of 1.04%. Price currently trades mid-range within today’s $81.18 – $84.14 band, reflecting moderate intraday volatility and mild strength from the open, yet momentum signals still favor sellers. There is a clear divergence: despite the bounce, short-term indicators remain bearish.

Downside risk persists as volatility bands cap near-term upside

For the next five trading days, the adjusted expected range is $80.00 – $86.50, keeping price shifts within a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an increase is very low (less than 20%), making further downside more likely. The baseline scenario is sideways trading between immediate support near $80.00 and resistance near $86.50. A bullish scenario would require a decisive move above $88.36, targeting further recovery, while a bearish break below $80.00 could see an accelerated slide. Data from weekly and daily MAs, as well as momentum indicators, confirm that the near-term outlook remains under pressure unless strong demand emerges at lower levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees underlying pressure on Solana but notes constructive macro developments. He highlights the regulatory shift classifying Solana as a digital commodity, which can drive future institutional flows despite current outflows and weak price momentum. The analyst views the ongoing staking yields and growing legitimacy as positives if market sentiment shifts. However, he remains attentive to short-term seller dominance. "If Solana holds above $80.00 in the coming days, renewed demand from institutions could support a gradual recovery."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana faced persistent bearish pressure amid weak technical momentum and risk-off sentiment. The latest data confirms ongoing downside risks, with traders advised to monitor for a potential accelerated decline if the $80.00 support level is breached in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.