Solana price prediction: More downside after exploit? SOL slides 6.18% near $79

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Solana drops 6.18% today to $79.06

Highlights

Drift Protocol on Solana suffered an exploit exceeding $285 million, representing over 50% of its total value locked.
This security incident triggered a halt in platform transactions, diminished DeFi activity, and sharply reduced DEX trading volumes on Solana.
SOL trades well below key technical levels with strong bearish momentum, an expected range of $76.00–$84.00, and downside risk dominating near term direction.

Major exploit and reduced DeFi activity accelerate negative sentiment

On April 1, the Solana-based Drift Protocol suffered a major exploit, with attackers siphoning over $285 million — more than 50% of Drift’s total value locked. Drift responded by suspending platform transactions and launching investigations. The incident was reported as the second-largest exploit in Solana's history and was accompanied by reduced DeFi activity and DEX trading volumes.

Technical breakdown deepens with oversold signals and high volatility

SOL trades notably below all key averages, with the current price of $79.06 under the MA-20 ($87.80), MA-50 ($85.76), and MA-200 ($138.87), indicating persistent short-, medium-, and long-term pressure from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $88.32, which forms immediate resistance above the current level. Momentum remains weak, as the MACD signals a sell across all major timeframes and the ADX D1 reads a low value (16.57, neutral), showing a lack of directional strength. Oscillators reinforce a bearish bias, with the RSI at 40.15 (Sell), Stoch RSI deep in oversold, and CCI also signaling oversold. BBP reflects overbought conditions on the current D1, but intraday timeframes have shifted to oversold, suggesting recent capitulation by buyers and dominance by sellers. The AO confirms downward momentum, aligning with these signals. Today's price dropped sharply — down $5.21 or 6.18% — with no gap at the open, and the price is now near the day’s low within a tight range of $78.41–$81.71, highlighting high volatility and unrelenting pressure after the open. Divergence is seen in BBP and some short-term oscillators, but strong downside momentum and intraday weakness dominate the tone.

Bearish outlook persists as indicators support downside risk

Looking ahead, the expected range for the next five trading days is $76.00 to $84.00, calibrated for market volatility given the recent sharp drop. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), while a decline remains much more likely, supported by all weekly momentum and trend indicators (RSI W1, ADX W1, MACD W1, and MA-50 W1 all signal Sell). The baseline scenario favors sideways movement between $76.00 and $84.00 as momentum cools. A bullish breakout requires a convincing close above the Kijun resistance of $88.32, while a move below $76.00 could trigger another leg lower, extending the bearish trend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana faces persistent selling pressure across all timeframes with technicals remaining strongly bearish. He sees the aftermath of the Drift Protocol exploit as sentiment-negative, further dampening interest and activity in SOL. Volatility remains high and momentum is weak, making a reversal unlikely without a clear catalyst. "Until SOL closes decisively above $88.32, I remain defensive and see little reason to expect a sustainable recovery."

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained selling pressure and persistent bearish signals continued to define Solana’s overall market structure. The current deterioration in technical momentum, compounded by fallout from the Drift Protocol exploit, heightens downside risk and makes the $76.00 support level critical for traders to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.