Bitcoin price prediction: Can $78,900 resistance hold as BTC gains 1.36%?

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Bitcoin rises 1.36% to $78,212.68 today

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed outflows with $14.76 million net inflows on April 30, supporting renewed institutional demand.
Bhutan's sale of 70% of its reserves since 2024 introduces additional selling pressure as supply increases.
Bitcoin trades firmly above short-term supports with a $75,500–$78,900 expected range, but momentum signals suggest a higher risk of downside than upside near term.

Institutional ETF inflows revive demand amid Bhutan-driven supply rise

A key driver for Bitcoin today is the net inflow of $14.76 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on April 30, ending a prior streak of outflows and providing a fresh source of institutional demand. Meanwhile, Bhutan has continued to systematically reduce its reserves, having sold off 70% since 2024, adding some supply-side headwinds. Additional developments include KLab Inc.’s disclosure of stable holdings at the end of April and Utexo’s appointment of a leading developer to expand Bitcoin-based stablecoin infrastructure.

Resistance capped by SMA-200 as intraday signals turn mixed

Technically, BTC is currently trading above the SMA-20 at $76,102.02 and the SMA-50 at $72,354.19, with the SMA-200 near $84,044.07 forming a significant resistance overhead. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $73,608.83, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators show a moderately overbought RSI of 60.59 and persistent buyer dominance via BBP, with MACD and ADX on D1 confirming a bullish bias. However, Stoch RSI points to overbought conditions, the AO is neutral, and oscillators across lower timeframes reveal some divergence, highlighting mixed intraday sentiment.

Sideways trading expected as momentum weakens and breakout odds fall

Looking at the short term, the expected price band for the next five trading days is $75,500 to $78,900, aligning with typical volatility around current levels. The probability of a sustained move higher from here is limited (below 20%), so a sideways scenario between these bounds is the baseline outlook. An upside breakout above $78,900 could open the way to higher resistance, though momentum is lacking for such a move. A downside break under $75,500 would likely expose BTC to further pullbacks, consistent with weaker momentum on the weekly chart.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the reversal in U.S. ETF flows as a strong fundamental signal of renewed institutional demand. He believes that steady technical support and positive macro sentiment limit immediate downside risk, even with sovereign selling in play. Inflows and ecosystem developments should bolster medium-term confidence. However, resistance overhead and some overbought signals suggest a breakout will require stronger momentum. "ETF demand is back, and despite some selling headwinds, Bitcoin's outlook remains bright for disciplined bulls."

Previously it was reported that new tools are emerging to address misconceptions about Bitcoin, particularly regarding its environmental impact and role within the financial system. As institutional flows and supply-side developments shape current price dynamics, traders should stay alert to potential volatility around external narratives and remain mindful of breakout risks should the $78,900 resistance be decisively cleared.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.