Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin bottom is in, sees major rally ahead

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Highlights

Hayes believes Bitcoin has already formed a bottom near $60,000.
His next major target is $126,000 and above.
The main drivers are AI spending, war-related fiscal expansion and global liquidity growth.
The forecast is based on macroeconomics, not technical analysis.

Hayes says the bottom is in

Hayes believes Bitcoin has already completed its painful pullback and is now entering a new growth cycle. In his view, the low near $60,000 earlier this year became the level from which markets began pricing in a future wave of liquidity.

His argument is that Bitcoin remains the key asset for investors betting on monetary expansion. Hayes says the United States and China are no longer treating artificial intelligence as a regular technology sector but as part of national competition. That means heavy spending on data centers, energy, chips, military infrastructure, and other capital-intensive projects.

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AI, war, and money creation

The central idea of the essay is that the next wave of spending will require support from central and commercial banks. Arthur Hayes argues that major technology companies will not be able to fund the next phase of the AI race using only their own cash flows, meaning capital will have to be created through credit.

In his view, this is favorable for crypto markets because the financial system will eventually contain “much more fiat” than it does today.

Another part of his forecast is tied to geopolitics. Hayes argues that war and supply-chain fears will push governments to spend less on financial assets and more on food, fuel, defense, energy, and logistics. In that environment, he believes governments and regulators will be forced to support markets with liquidity to avoid deeper financial stress.

Hayes has previously said Bitcoin could reach $125,000, arguing that the main driver is not regulation, but global liquidity and money supply growth. He has also said that the CLARITY Act would have limited impact on the long-term direction of the market because, in his words, “Bitcoin is liquidity.”

A liquidity bet, not a news trade

For the market, the significance of Hayes’ forecast is less about the exact price target and more about the logic behind it. He believes Bitcoin has already begun pricing in future liquidity injections faster than the Nasdaq, gold, or technology stocks.

At the same time, Hayes acknowledges that he does not know how far the rally could go if his scenario of accelerated money creation plays out.

Still, there is a weak point in the argument. Hayes is known for bold macro calls, and his short-term Bitcoin price targets have not always been accurate. The market will likely test his thesis through actual data: dollar liquidity, AI infrastructure spending, Federal Reserve policy, and Bitcoin demand above key technical levels.

As we previously reported, Arthur Hayes explained the bull market prompts the Zcash giveaway meme contest with a geopolitics theme.

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