Aave holds above $96 with persistent bearish technicals as MACD signals strong sell: weekly outlook

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Aave gains 4.77% over the week

Highlights

AAVE shows persistent bearish momentum, trading well below all major moving averages and technical resistance levels.
Oscillator signals and momentum indicators remain overwhelmingly negative, with low probability of a sustained upward move.
AAVE is expected to trade between $87 and $107 this week, with further downside likely if support at $87 breaks.

Legal dispute and protocol updates shape sentiment during the week

A New York federal judge has postponed a decision regarding Aave's request to unfreeze approximately $71 million in Ethereum (ETH) that remains locked following the April 2026 KelpDAO exploit. The court called for additional legal briefs from both Aave and opposing parties and scheduled a key hearing for June 5, 2026, as the dispute centers on whether these funds should be returned to Aave users or withheld for other creditor claims. Meanwhile, Aave DAO is working on technical recovery efforts and has proposed integrating native Bitcoin lending through the Babylon protocol in the upcoming Aave V4 release.

Firm bearish momentum as all major weekly indicators signal weakness

On the weekly chart, AAVE continues to trade below all major moving averages — the MA-20 at $116.55, the MA-50 at $199.11, and the MA-200 at $137.42 — reinforcing a bearish outlook. Weekly momentum readings are negative, with MACD signaling a strong sell and ADX showing a firm bearish trend. Oscillators, including RSI and CCI, remain in sell territory, while the Stochastic RSI indicates the asset is overbought. Key support is found near $87, with immediate resistance around $107 and broader resistance at the MA-20 level.

Sideways range favored as upside remains capped and downside risks grow

For the next 7 days, price action is expected to be contained within a range of $87.10 to $106.50, in line with typical weekly volatility of 10.09%. Given continued bearish momentum and a lack of bullish signals on major weekly indicators, the most likely scenario is sideways movement between $87 and $107. A break above $107 could trigger a move towards the next resistance, but the probability of a sustained upward trend remains low. A drop below $87 would expose AAVE to further declines and potentially new year-to-date lows.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that AAVE gained nearly 5% this week, but the token remains pressured below all major moving averages and recent technical signals continue to warn of a bearish bias. With momentum and oscillators still pointing lower, Mehta sees little evidence for a sustained reversal as legal uncertainty hangs over Aave’s ecosystem. He believes price action will likely be capped between support at $87 and resistance at $107 in the coming week. "Until we see a break above $107 or strong bullish momentum on weekly indicators, I am tactically neutral and prefer to avoid chasing upside here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aave’s recovery from recent protocol setbacks had reintroduced tentative bullish momentum despite persistent technical and legal challenges. The current environment reinforces this cautious outlook, with bearish weekly indicators and an unresolved legal dispute maintaining downside risk and making $87 the pivotal support level for traders to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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