Hyperliquid price prediction: Will $40.00 support hold as HYPE slides 7.80%?

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Hyperliquid drops 7.80% to $42.22 today

Highlights

Coinbase's appointment as official treasury deployer for USDC on Hyperliquid institutionalizes USDC liquidity and directs reserve revenue to HYPE token buybacks and assistance funds.
Bitwise and 21Shares launched U.S.-listed spot Hyperliquid ETFs, broadening regulated access amid increased compliance scrutiny and ongoing market sell-off.
HYPE is exhibiting mixed technicals—overbought momentum but weakening conviction—with a projected $40.00–$45.00 trading range and high likelihood of sideways action or an upside move.

Institutional inflows and compliance risk as USDC replaces USDH

On May 15, 2026, Coinbase was appointed as the official treasury deployer for USDC on Hyperliquid, with USDC replacing the USDH stablecoin as the platform's primary quote asset. This transition formalized USDC liquidity on Hyperliquid, increased institutional access, and was accompanied by reserve-generated revenue from USDC supply now routed into HYPE token buybacks and the Assistance Fund. The launch of multiple U.S.-listed spot Hyperliquid ETFs by Bitwise and 21Shares further facilitated regulated access for both retail and institutional investors, while calls for heightened regulatory scrutiny by major U.S. exchanges have introduced a notable compliance risk backdrop. All of these developments have occurred during a period of broader selling pressure.

Established support zone amid overbought signals and fading momentum

The MA-20 ($41.89), MA-50 ($40.73), and MA-200 ($33.98) are all below the current price, confirming an established support area. The Ichimoku Kijun at $42.59 serves as immediate resistance following today’s decline. MACD (D1) remains positive, while ADX (D1) is neutral at 15.41, which indicates a lack of trend strength. RSI reads 58.57 for moderate upward momentum; however, both Stoch RSI and CCI are overbought, and BBP signals buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The price has traded near today’s low in a narrow $42.48–$44.54 range, showing moderate intraday volatility amid ongoing sell pressure.

High breakout odds as momentum favors upside in volatile band

Over the next five trading days, the projected volatility band is $40.00 to $45.00 based on recent price action. Given the positive signals from MACD and RSI on daily and weekly timeframes, there is a high probability (over 80%) of an upside move, with a downside move being less likely. The baseline scenario is for HYPE to continue trading sideways within the $40.00–$45.00 range. A bullish breakout above $42.59 could trigger renewed buying toward the upper end, while a drop below $40.00 may accelerate seller pressure and further shift momentum down.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees institutional moves and ETF launches as major positives for Hyperliquid’s fundamental outlook. He believes the Coinbase and USDC integration strengthens platform credibility and should deepen liquidity, despite current selling pressure. Regulatory risks are now heightened, but the overall structure supports constructive sentiment in the medium term. "As long as HYPE holds above $40.00, I expect renewed demand and a push toward the upper end of the current range."

Earlier, analysts noted that institutional demand for Hyperliquid was accelerating amid the rollout of new regulated funds and Coinbase's expanded role in network treasury operations. With current technicals indicating consolidation above primary support levels and volatility projected to remain elevated, traders should monitor the $40.00–$45.00 band for signs of a sustained breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.