Bitcoin drops as $635 million outflow from US Bitcoin ETFs rattles market

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Bitcoin slides 2.39% to $78,663 today

Highlights

The US Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act, providing regulatory distinction for digital commodities and securities and potentially enabling greater institutional Bitcoin inflows.
US Bitcoin ETFs experienced $635 million in outflows as heightened geopolitical risk drove risk-off sentiment and elevated volatility, putting pressure on Bitcoin demand.
Bitcoin trades under key moving averages with technical signals broadly bearish; further downside is likely, with a five-day range expected between $76,000 and $80,500.

ETF outflows and regulatory clarity shift sentiment amid global risk

On May 15, the US Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of the Clarity Act established a statutory framework distinguishing oversight of digital commodities and securities, enhancing regulatory clarity and enabling increased institutional inflows to Bitcoin through established channels. The same session saw $635 million withdrawn from US Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting immediate shifts in capital allocation and short-term demand for the asset. Escalating US-Iran hostilities led to further global risk aversion, higher oil prices, and elevated market volatility, conditions which have affected BTC’s liquidity profile, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical resistance emerges as indicators show mixed momentum

BTC trades below the 20-day simple moving average of $79,353.38 and under the D1 Ichimoku Kijun level at $78,287.16, with these levels now representing immediate resistance. Key support is seen at the 50-day SMA of $74,967.93, while longer-term resistance aligns with the 200-day SMA at $81,956.49. MACD on the daily chart signals strong positive momentum, with ADX at 23.83 reflecting a present but moderate trend, although most intraday timeframes for these indicators now show a sell bias. The RSI on D1 reads 52.26, indicating moderate strength, while Stoch RSI is deeply oversold, CCI is neutral, and AO is neutral; Bull/Bear Power (BBP) suggests sellers are dominating on intraday intervals despite prior overbought conditions, highlighting persistent market uncertainty.

Sideways movement likely as volatility and caution dominate outlook

Over the next five trading days, BTC is expected to remain within a volatility band between $76,000 and $80,500. The probability of a price increase is currently low, with the baseline scenario suggesting continued sideways trading around current support and resistance. A decisive move above the $78,287 level could open the path toward a test of $80,500, while a drop below $76,000 would risk exposing the asset to further selling if downside momentum accelerates. Prevailing market caution persists despite occasional support from medium- and long-term technicals.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that recent regulatory progress in the US is laying the groundwork for increased institutional participation in Bitcoin. He sees short-term selling from ETF outflows and geopolitical instability amplifying volatility, but believes the asset is fundamentally supported above its medium-term averages. In the current environment, price traction above $78,287 could act as a trigger for renewed momentum. Karapetjanc states: "With regulatory clarity advancing, I remain constructive on Bitcoin’s outlook, and a sustained break of key resistance may open the way for a stronger recovery in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite growing institutional interest and tentative steps by some central banks, Bitcoin remains hindered by volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and questions about its suitability as a reserve asset compared to gold. The latest shift in ETF flows and evolving US regulatory frameworks adds a new dimension, highlighting that near-term trading will likely hinge on the market's reaction to both policy signals and ongoing geopolitical risks; traders should watch for potential breakouts above $78,287 as a signal of renewed bullish momentum.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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