Bitcoin trades down as US-Iran conflict triggers risk-off

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Bitcoin slides 1.57% to $76,882 today

Highlights

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran sparked over $580 million in Bitcoin liquidations as investors exited risk assets.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $635 million in outflows on May 13, aggravating market liquidity challenges alongside stronger Treasury yields and a firmer dollar.
Bitcoin remains pressured below key resistance levels with a projected $75,000 to $80,500 trading range and elevated downside risk in the short term.

Outflows and forced liquidations mount as geopolitical risk spikes

Escalating tensions between the US and Iran triggered a material sell-off in Bitcoin, resulting in over $580 million of forced liquidations as investors de-risked amid heightened geopolitical risk. This activity was accompanied by significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, including a record $635 million withdrawal on May 13, which compounded market liquidity constraints. Additionally, surging Treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar, resulting from investor risk aversion, have further pressured Bitcoin as a non-yielding asset.

Diverging signals in trend and momentum after breach of major levels

BTC faces multiple key technical barriers following today's slide. The price is trading below both the SMA-20 at $79,352.10 and the SMA-200 at $81,621.91, while remaining above the SMA-50 at $75,432.31. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $78,893.76 forms immediate overhead resistance. On the oscillator side, the daily MACD remains in strong buy territory, though the RSI at 47.95 signals a sell outlook and the ADX at 23.09 points to only moderate trend strength. Both the Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) mark clear oversold conditions, while the CCI is also deep in oversold territory. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains neutral, highlighting a pronounced divergence across trend and momentum indicators.

Downside risk prevails as volatility band narrows near support

Near-term scenarios suggest BTC will fluctuate within a volatility band between $75,000 and $80,500, reflecting typical price swings relative to recent levels. The probability of an upside move remains under 20%, so a further pullback remains the base case if support near $75,000 is tested. A bullish reversal would require a clear break above $78,900 to target the $80,000–$80,500 region, while a confirmed drop below $75,000 would likely expose deeper downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees ongoing macro and sentiment headwinds for Bitcoin, driven by heightened geopolitical risk, ETF outflows, and a stronger dollar. He believes technical signals remain mixed but leans cautiously constructive given the strength in medium-term support and lingering buy signals on some oscillators. The outlook favors volatility in a wide range, with $75,000 as key support and upside limited below $78,900 for now. While near-term downside cannot be ruled out, Karapetjanc expects conditions to stabilize as risk sentiment improves. "If Bitcoin can defend $75,000, I see room for recovery toward $80,000 once macro nerves settle."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin remained highly sensitive to broader macroeconomic pressures, with risk assets vulnerable to sharp declines amid investor caution. Current market action underscores this vulnerability, with heightened geopolitical tensions and liquidity constraints compounding downside risk—making the defense of support near $75,000 crucial for traders monitoring further volatility.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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