Solana retreats toward $74.50 support as momentum oscillators favor sellers: weekly analysis

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Solana slips 6.46% over the week

Highlights

Solana remains in a firmly bearish trend, trading well below major moving averages and facing sustained downward pressure.
Momentum indicators and volume-based metrics confirm continued seller dominance, with oversold conditions and little sign of relief.
SOL's expected range over the next week is $74.50 to $87.00, with further declines more likely than an upward reversal.

Institutional inflows and record settlements as ecosystem partnerships expand

Spot Solana ETFs saw strong institutional inflows, gathering over $8 billion in assets in early 2026 following their launch, driven by new custody infrastructure and varied staking strategies. Solana also reached a record $650 billion in stablecoin settlement volume in February 2026, with major firms like Visa, PayPal, and Stripe integrating its blockchain for payment operations. Additional highlights include the debut of tokenized asset trading by Orca DEX, Circle minting $250 million USDC, new regulated stablecoins such as SoFiUSD, and privacy solutions partnerships.

Technical indicators confirm entrenched bearish trend over the week

On the weekly timeframe, SOL is trading well beneath all major moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, MA-200), confirming a strong, persistent bearish trend. The closest resistance is the MA-20 near $90.29, while momentum oscillators (MACD 'Strong Sell', ADX 'Sell') reinforce negative sentiment. Weekly RSI and CCI remain in the sell zone, Bull/Bear Power is oversold, and the Awesome Oscillator holds negative and neutral readings. Primary support rests near $74.50, with resistance around $87.00.

Limited rebound odds as weak momentum and range-bound trading expected

For the next 7 days, SOL is likely to trade between $74.50 and $87.00, with a bias toward continued sideways or weakly bearish movement near current lows. Given the persistent negative readings across all W1 momentum indicators, the probability of a sustained rebound above resistance is under 20%. Should selling persist and support near $74.50 fail, further downside is possible, while only a decisive break above $87.00 would improve the technical outlook this week.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees Solana stuck in a strongly bearish structure this week, with prices under all major weekly moving averages and momentum deeply negative. Despite notable institutional flows into spot ETFs and growing stablecoin activity on the network, neither price action nor sentiment has shown a shift from the persistent downtrend. The technical outlook remains weak, as sellers continue to dominate and most oscillators fail to show any meaningful relief. He notes that only a clear break above $87.00 would hint at a shift, while risk remains elevated if $74.50 support is lost. "Unless SOL decisively reclaims $87.00, I expect sideways to weakly bearish trading to persist, and I am watching for sentiment shifts around major support."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was experiencing persistent bearish momentum amid network developments and regulatory actions, with price action constrained by weak technical signals. The current outlook not only confirms this sustained downside bias but also highlights $74.50 as a crucial support level to monitor for potential further declines if selling pressure intensifies.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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