Solana price prediction: Will $89.25 resistance be tested? SOL up 1.62%

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Solana gains 1.62% today to $82.14

Highlights

A 30% drop in Solana futures open interest from $2.75 billion to $1.90 billion in May signals reduced speculative demand and a pronounced withdrawal of capital from derivatives markets.
Over 4.2 million SOL (around $738.6 million) transferred from Pump.fun to Kraken has increased immediate sell-side liquidity and amplified supply at key support areas.
Technical indicators signal persistent selling pressure with SOL trading below key averages; the price is forecast to range between $80.00 and $85.00 over the next five days, with a higher probability of further downside unless resistance at $89.25 is overcome.

Capital withdrawal and increased supply weigh on futures demand

A significant 30% decline in Solana futures open interest from $2.75 billion to $1.90 billion in May points to a notable withdrawal of capital from derivatives markets, indicating reduced speculative appetite and directly weighing on demand. The transfer of over 4.2 million SOL (about $738.6 million) from Pump.fun to Kraken has also increased immediate liquidity on the sell side, further amplifying supply dynamics around key support levels. Meanwhile, new community initiatives such as the Solana Vibe Bootcamp and the public testnet launch for Solayer's Margin Trade platform are helping to drive ongoing network development, with the bootcamp gathering more than 70 participants and Solayer bringing new trading tools to the ecosystem. These secondary developments illustrate sustained grassroots and technical progress within the Solana network.

Broad technical weakness as sellers maintain momentum below resistance

SOL faces technical headwinds, with the price sitting below the SMA-20 ($87.88), SMA-50 ($86.51), and SMA-200 ($105.62). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $89.25 serves as immediate resistance, while the $80.00 mark forms key support. Momentum remains negative on the daily chart, as indicated by a continued sell signal from the MACD and a weak ADX reading of 12.54, suggesting no strong trend presence. Oscillators reflect mixed oversold conditions: the RSI is below 40, Stoch RSI is at 0 (oversold zone), and CCI shows oversold levels, with Bull/Bear Power confirming ongoing seller dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also aligns with the prevailing downtrend.

Sideways bias expected as oversold signals clash with bearish trend

In the coming five trading days, SOL is expected to fluctuate within a $80.00 $85.00 band, in line with typical volatility at current levels. There is less than a 20% chance of a sustained upward move in the absence of clear buy signals from multi-timeframe indicators. The baseline scenario is for sideways movement as oversold conditions compete with persistent medium- and long-term selling pressure. A break above the $89.25 resistance would be needed for a bullish reversal, while a move below $80.00 could prompt further local declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union analyst, sees fundamental and sentiment factors shaping Solana’s short-term outlook. He believes the sharp drop in futures open interest and large SOL transfers to exchanges reflect a temporary cooling of speculative risk, but continued community and technical progress add medium-term support. In his view, broad-based selling may persist unless bullish signals re-emerge, yet underlying development keeps the long-term narrative positive. "Solana’s network is strengthening behind the scenes, so I remain constructive as long as key support holds and developer engagement grows."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was under persistent bearish pressure as sellers maintained firm control amid broader risk-off market conditions. The current analysis reinforces this downside bias, highlighting that sustained sideways movement is likely in the near term, but any decisive move below the $80.00 support could accelerate further declines.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.