Solana edges higher as sellers lose control of the short-term trend

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Solana up 1.17% today to $82.09

Highlights

Rising US-Iran tensions sparked a swift shift to risk-off sentiment, causing institutional outflows from Solana and broad crypto weakness.
South Korea’s first major enforcement under its new crypto law targeted Solana DeFi fraud, signaling heightened regulatory scrutiny for on-chain activities.
Solana remains trapped in a pronounced downtrend, with technical indicators flashing oversold signals and likely price action between $80.50 and $84.00 in the coming days.

Accelerated crypto outflows as US-Iran tensions and Korea crackdown intensify risk aversion

Geopolitical escalation between the United States and Iran has triggered a sharp selloff in risk assets, including Solana, as reports of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards striking a US airbase led to increased oil prices and heightened inflation fears, driving investors away from high-risk cryptocurrencies. Escalating tensions in the region and fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated risk-off sentiment, causing institutional outflows from crypto assets such as Solana. South Korea’s first criminal case under the Virtual Asset User Protection Act has resulted in the arrest and indictment of suspects for market manipulation and fraud related to a Solana-based decentralized exchange rug pull, marking a significant regulatory action against on-chain misconduct. This regulatory enforcement reflects a shift in South Korean oversight from centralized exchanges to DeFi activities on the Solana blockchain.

Bearish momentum reinforces downside as Solana struggles under resistance

SOL faces multiple technical barriers, trading below the SMA-20 at $87.88, SMA-50 at $86.51, and SMA-200 at $105.62. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $89.25. Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, as the MACD issues a 'Sell' signal on both daily and weekly timeframes, while the ADX daily reading remains neutral, suggesting trend weakness. RSI is in oversold territory at 38.96 (D1) and 37.00 (W1), CCI stands at -106.85 (D1), Stoch RSI is fully oversold at 0.00 (D1), and BBP registers a -2.20 (D1) reading, all highlighting intensified seller control. The Awesome Oscillator supports the dominant downward momentum, even as short-term signals occasionally flash limited counter-trend buy signals.

Sideways bias dominates outlook as breakouts hinge on resistance test

Over the next five trading days, the projected price range for SOL is $80.50 to $84.00 based on typical volatility near current levels. There is a low probability (less than 20%) of a price increase, with further declines more likely if momentum persists. The most probable scenario is continued sideways trading just above recent lows. Any sustainable bullish reversal would only become possible with a decisive move above resistance near $89.25, while a breakdown below $80.50 could open additional downside if long-term selling pressure continues.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana pressured by macro headwinds and recent regulatory action despite a modest daily gain. He believes geopolitical risks and stricter oversight in Asian markets have amplified risk-off sentiment, weighing on Solana’s institutional appeal and inflows. Although the technical outlook remains bearish, Karapetjanc notes that constructive sentiment could return if Solana reclaims key resistance above $89.25. "The market is in risk-averse mode for now, but if Solana can break above resistance, we could see buying quickly return," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was constrained by persistent selling pressure and a lack of strong bullish signals, resulting in a broadly bearish outlook. The latest geopolitical and regulatory developments strengthen this negative bias, highlighting that any sustained move below $80.50 may open the door to further downside in the days ahead.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.