Solana price prediction: Will $89.21 resistance cap SOL upside?

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Solana gains 0.57% today at $82.92

Highlights

Spot Solana ETFs have surpassed $1 billion in net inflows since their October 2025 launch, signaling strong institutional demand.
Assets under management in Solana ETFs stand at $987 million, boosting liquidity and expanding the asset's market presence.
SOL trades below major technical levels with bearish momentum prevailing; price is expected to range between $81.10 and $83.35 short term.

Institutional inflows bolster Solana’s liquidity and visibility via ETFs

Spot Solana ETFs, having launched in October 2025, have now accumulated over $1 billion in net inflows, with approximately $987 million reported in assets under management. This milestone highlights continued institutional demand for Solana, as funds are absorbed through regulated investment vehicles, supporting liquidity and increasing the asset's market visibility. These developments have provided a foundation for recent trading activity, as market participants weigh the impact of robust institutional flows.

Technical barriers and weak momentum confine SOL in bearish range

Technically, SOL remains below the SMA-20 at $86.63, the SMA-50 at $86.44, and the SMA-200 at $104.83, with the Ichimoku Kijun set at $89.21 and acting as the closest resistance level. The expected trading range based on current patterns is bounded by $81.10 (support) and $83.35 (minor resistance). Momentum signals remain weak on the daily chart: both the MACD and ADX indicate limited bullish drive, while the RSI at 40.71 and CCI at –85.12 point to a market that leans bearish but is not yet oversold. The Stoch RSI, however, is in a "Strong Buy" position, hinting at the possibility of a short-term rebound, and the BBP at –1.26 confirms that sellers are dominating the intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with these observations, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend amid modest intraday price movement.

Range-bound outlook persists as momentum favors sellers barring breakout

Looking ahead, the most likely scenario for SOL over the next five trading days is range-bound action between $81.10 and $83.35, reflecting typical volatility around current levels. The probability of a significant upside move is low (less than 20%), suggesting a sideways-to-lower bias unless a break above $89.21 occurs on strong momentum. If the price rebounds and exceeds $89.21, it would signal a short-term reversal with broader technical confirmation required for sustained gains. Conversely, a move below $81.10 would reinforce seller dominance and trigger further downside potential in line with prevailing trends.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees institutional inflows into spot Solana ETFs as a positive signal for asset visibility but notes that technicals remain uninspired. He observes that SOL continues to struggle below key moving averages and that most momentum indicators suggest a lack of bullish conviction. The near-term outlook favors a sideways or lower move unless there is a strong breakout above $89.21. "Until Solana overcomes resistance at $89.21 with real momentum, I remain cautious and see no clear setup for the bulls."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was under persistent bearish pressure, with limited prospects for a sustained recovery and ongoing concerns around ecosystem security. The current landscape, marked by strong institutional ETF inflows but continued technical weakness, underscores the importance of monitoring Solana’s ability to reclaim the $89.21 resistance as a signal for potential short-term reversal.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.