Bitcoin price prediction: Can $64,800 resistance hold as BTC climbs 1.5%?

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Bitcoin jumps 1.5% to $63,678 today

Highlights

Bitcoin network activity reached its highest level in 2024, driven by retail-dominated micro-transactions representing nearly 80% of daily volume.
ETF flows sent mixed signals, with Franklin Templeton filing for two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs while BlackRock saw daily net outflows exceeding 1,000 BTC.
BTC remains in a short-term uptrend but shows overbought technical signals, with expected consolidation between $62,555 and $64,800 in the next few days.

Retail transaction surge and ETF news shift short-term BTC demand

Bitcoin's network activity surged to its highest level since 2024, with nearly 80% of daily transactions registering below 0.01 BTC, reflecting heightened retail participation and a broader user base on the blockchain, according to CryptoQuant. This uptick in micro-transactions signals expanding utility and can bolster short-term transactional demand for BTC. Additional news saw Franklin Templeton file for two new Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, which could increase future equity-to-crypto capital flows, as reported by Cryptobriefing, while BlackRock's continued BTC ETF outflows, totaling over 1,000 BTC in a single day per Finance Yahoo, may have tempered institutional sentiment.

Short-term buying strength faces overbought risks as volatility declines

On the h1 chart, BTC is trading above the MA-20 at $63,149 and MA-50 at $63,258, while remaining below the MA-200 at $77,048. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $63,046 and acts as immediate support. RSI is measured at 57.34, and MACD shows a Buy signal; ADX is Neutral. Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicators are all Overbought, highlighting strong buyer dominance but also indicating risk of exhaustion. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is Neutral, and price action finds itself in the mid-range for the session amid low volatility. Together, these signals present a technical divergence where short-term momentum remains positive, but overbought oscillators warn of potential pullback.

Sideways move likely as price nears resistance and support thresholds

For the next two to three sessions, BTC is expected to trade within a $62,555 to $64,800 range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario sees price action remaining sideways inside this established range. An upside scenario would be triggered if BTC breaks above $64,800, while a bearish case would unfold if the asset falls below immediate support at $63,046. Probability analysis suggests a 63% likelihood of an upward move, versus a 37% chance of downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees strong retail-driven demand fueling Bitcoin as network activity hits new highs for 2024–2026. He believes micro-transaction growth and new ETF filings signal rising investor confidence and growing adoption. Ongoing ETF outflows from BlackRock reflect some institutional hesitation, but short-term price action still favors bulls above $63,046. "Rising participation and product innovation provide a constructive outlook—so long as Bitcoin holds above support, I expect buyers to dominate the near-term trend."

Previously it was reported that GoMining launched GoBTC Pay, enabling merchants to accept direct Bitcoin payments without automatic fiat conversion, aiming to increase native Bitcoin transaction adoption. As network activity and retail micro-transactions reach new highs, traders should monitor for shifts in Bitcoin's demand profile that could drive volatility beyond the established $62,555 to $64,800 trading range.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.