XRP price prediction: Will $1.085 support hold as XRP declines?

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XRP drops 1.66% today to $1.11

Highlights

The XRP Ledger is undergoing major infrastructure upgrades to enhance protocol security and future-proof its network capabilities.
Ripple's compliance with California's incoming Digital Financial Assets Law introduces regulatory risk for continued XRP operations in the state.
XRP trades below key technical support levels with momentum indicators signaling strong bearish bias and an expected range of $1.085 to $1.1409.

Network upgrades and regulatory filings heighten operational uncertainty

The XRP Ledger is undergoing significant infrastructure upgrades aimed at expanding its functionality and fortifying network security, as reported by Coinedition. These efforts are intended to equip the protocol to meet future technological challenges, potentially enhancing its resilience and operational stability over the medium term. Separately, upcoming implementation of the Digital Financial Assets Law in California, as highlighted by Tipranks, requires Ripple to complete regulatory filings to maintain XRP activity in the state, introducing a measure of regulatory uncertainty that could impact future operations if unmet. These developments have emerged as the asset continues to face broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals and firm resistance reinforce negative momentum

On the hourly chart, XRP/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $1.1353 and the MA-50 at $1.1386, with price action remaining under the long-term MA-200 at $1.5389 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $1.1389 represents immediate resistance. Momentum remains negative: MACD signals Sell, ADX is Neutral, RSI stands at 32.23 (Sell), and both CCI and Stoch RSI indicate oversold conditions. BBP reflects seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator confirms the ongoing downtrend. Volatility is moderate, and XRP is trading close to the session low with a negative gap of 0.0062.

Range-bound outlook persists as breakout probability stays muted

In the short term, XRP is expected to remain range-bound between $1.085 and $1.1409 over the next 213 trading days. A move above the $1.1389 resistance zone would be required to shift the scenario bullish, but the probability of an upward breakout is currently very low relative to the prevailing volatility band. Conversely, a decline below $1.085 would confirm further downside and reinforce the existing bearish scenario, while a sideways trajectory within the defined range remains the baseline expectation.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that XRP is under continued technical pressure, with price action below key moving averages and negative momentum confirmed by multiple indicators. He sees protocol upgrades as positive for long-term stability but expects limited near-term market impact, especially with fresh regulatory risks in California. Kharitonov remains cautious, citing the risk of further downside if $1.085 is breached. "Range trading persists unless bulls reclaim $1.1389 — my outlook stays defensive until that level is broken."

Earlier, analysts noted that XRP was experiencing persistent bearish momentum and limited prospects for a short-term rebound. This latest analysis reinforces that outlook in the face of continued technical weakness and emerging regulatory uncertainty, with traders advised to watch for shifts in market sentiment as infrastructure upgrades and compliance efforts progress.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.