Bitcoin holds steady after US sanctions on Nobitex crypto exchange

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Bitcoin flat today near $60,035

Highlights

Iranian missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain triggered over $1 billion in crypto liquidations and forced selling.
US Treasury sanctions on Iran’s leading crypto exchange and $1.79 billion outflows from Bitcoin ETFs increased systemic instability and weakened institutional demand.
Bitcoin trades below key moving averages, with technical signals broadly bearish and a 74% probability of further downside targeting $54,958 support.

Large crypto outflows as Middle East tensions and US sanctions intensify

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out missile and drone strikes on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 3, 2026, prompting over $1 billion in crypto liquidations and widespread forced selling, as confirmed by Cryptobriefing. This direct disruption to market liquidity was compounded by fresh US Treasury sanctions on Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, restricting access for regional traders and adding to systemic instability, according to Cryptobriefing. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.79 billion in weekly outflows—the second-largest on record—removing institutional liquidity from the asset, as reported by Cryptobriefing. The overall backdrop was further influenced by persistent Middle East geopolitical tensions and expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes, which together have weighed on Bitcoin demand, Investing reported.

Conflicting momentum signals as resistance caps BTC below moving averages

BTC/USD trades below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages ($60,092 and $61,729, respectively) on the 4-hour chart, with the longer-term 200-period moving average well above at $75,718. The Ichimoku Kijun line acts as immediate resistance at $60,038. Oscillator readings are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) supports a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.11 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also signals sell, but Stochastic RSI gives a strong buy—demonstrating divergences among momentum indicators. Bull/Bear Power shows an overbought reading, pointing to recent buyer interest, while the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the overall sell bias.

Range-bound outlook prevails as downside risk outweighs breakout odds

In the near term, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within a range of $54,958 to $62,790, consistent with its typical volatility. There is a 26% probability of a breakout move to the upside, while the likelihood of a downward continuation stands at 74%. Should BTC/USD climb above $60,038 resistance, a fresh wave of buyers may emerge, whereas a drop below $54,958 support could trigger a deeper decline. The baseline outlook calls for further consolidation within a slightly descending channel.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin facing a challenging macro and regulatory climate. He notes that recent IRGC strikes and US sanctions triggered heavy liquidations and weakened regional demand. Large outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs add to the downside pressure. However, he views the overall structure as stable amid ongoing consolidation and expects sentiment to recover if uncertainties ease. "The current range reflects the market absorbing shocks, and I am constructive on Bitcoin regaining momentum above $60,038 if macro risks subside."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent institutional outflows and prevailing technical weakness were contributing to a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. With the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks and deepening institutional liquidations, downside pressure remains pronounced, making the $54,958 support level a critical threshold for gauging renewed volatility in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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