Hedera gains 7.62% as buyers test resistance at $0.0780: weekly outlook

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Hedera gains 7.62% over the week

Highlights

HBAR remains under medium- and long-term selling pressure, trading well below all key moving averages and dynamic resistance zones.
Momentum and trend indicators signal prevailing bearish conditions, with oscillators showing oversold readings but no confirmation of a sustained reversal.
The baseline scenario anticipates HBAR moving sideways between $0.0640 and $0.0780, with a less than 20% probability of an upward breakout next week.

Institutional inflows and supply release shape sentiment this week

Hedera has seen notable institutional attention following a $540,000 net inflow into Canary's spot HBAR ETF on July 20, 2026, bringing the fund’s holdings close to 1.6% of circulating supply. Trading volume rose to $89.53 million, while network fundamentals were shaped by the scheduled release of 4.07 billion HBAR in Q3 2026, primarily aimed at further ecosystem development via the Hedera Foundation. The network was also recognized for its advances in real-world asset development, supported by fixed US dollar-denominated network fees.

Weak momentum and oversold signals as resistance levels dominate

On the weekly chart, HBAR remains below the MA-20 ($0.0840), MA-50 ($0.1275), and MA-200 ($0.1109), identifying these as important dynamic resistance levels for the coming days. Momentum remains weak, with the MACD on a strong sell signal and ADX indicating a lack of clear trend, while oscillators such as RSI and CCI point to oversold conditions. The Stochastic RSI shows renewed buyer attempts to gain traction, but negative Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance. HBAR finished the week in the upper part of its range amid 13.91% volatility, suggesting choppy and conflicted sentiment despite a recent bounce.

Sideways bias next week amid breakout risk and downside concerns

For the next 7 days, the expected trading corridor is $0.0640 – $0.0780, reflecting current volatility levels. The probability of a breakout above $0.0780 is evaluated at less than 20%, indicating continued selling pressure and elevated downside risk. The central scenario remains sideways movement, but a bullish catalyst could trigger a short-term rally toward dynamic resistance if $0.0780 is breached. Conversely, a drop below $0.0640 could accelerate downward pressure, with sellers likely to push toward recent lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that HBAR gained 7.62% this week but remains under medium- and long-term seller pressure. He points out that price stayed well below all major moving averages, signaling persistent technical weakness. The analyst highlights that institutional flows into the Canary spot HBAR ETF and ecosystem developments have not translated into sustainable upside. Despite increased volume and a move to the upper end of the range, momentum indicators remain weak and sentiment conflicted. Kharitonov sees a sideways bias in the coming week, with risks skewed toward further downside unless $0.0780 is reclaimed decisively. "Until HBAR recovers above $0.0780, I stay defensive and see little reason for optimism this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Hedera's short-term momentum had turned bullish amid rising institutional demand and improving network fundamentals. The current outlook, however, highlights persisting medium- and long-term seller pressure, making $0.0780 a critical resistance level where a convincing breakout could shift sentiment and signal the potential for near-term upside.

Source of Data: HBAR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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