Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces risk of downside as post-FOMC demand fades

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Sholanke Dele

31.07.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces risk of downside as post-FOMC demand fades — Bitcoin's outlook remains cautious

Bitcoin price absorbed some price volatility following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. At the release of the FOMC statement at 2 PM New York time on Wednesday, BTC plunged 1.7% to a five-day low at $115,800. The drop was short-lived and swiftly faded as price recovered within the hour and continued rising into the Asian session on Thursday.

• Bitcoin gains 1.2% today after recovering from a post-FOMC drop to $115,800

• Golden sweep above prior high stalls at $119,200 inside bearish channel supply zone

• Futures positioning turns neutral as traders shift to spot-driven demand after rate cut odds drop

As of the European session today, Bitcoin is trading near $118,850, marking a 1.2% gain on the day and trading above the previous day’s high. However, the move above the prior high is likely a liquidity sweep rather than a breakout, given the broader bearish context. Since Bitcoin touched a record high of $122,000, price has trended lower in a descending channel, producing consistent lower highs and lower lows throughout the week.

BTC price dynamics (June - July 2025). Source: TradingView

From a technical perspective, the recent price action has respected the boundaries of the bearish channel. The sweep above Wednesday’s high touched the edge of a supply zone that starts around $119,200, a level that coincides with weakening volume on the 4-hour chart. The declining momentum on the intraday rally indicates that the supply zone is still intact and could resist further upside attempts.

Bitcoin 4-hour volume fades while intraday rally respects bearish channel limits

On the macro front, the FOMC outcome also affected expectations for monetary policy. Prior to the Fed meeting, the market had priced in a 63% chance of a rate cut in September. That probability has now dropped to 40% following Powell’s comments. The shift dampens short-term bullish momentum but does not eliminate the longer-term optimism that comes from the ongoing expansion in monetary liquidity.

In the derivatives market, sentiment has cooled as futures activity rotates into a neutral zone. Traders appear to be reducing leverage, which is usually a sign of de-risking. The transition to organic spot demand rather than speculative-driven moves suggests a healthier structural backdrop. If this continues, it could build the base for a more sustainable rally once the bearish channel is broken.

In the immediate term, Bitcoin is likely to stay pressured below $119,200 as long as the supply zone holds. The broader bearish channel keeps short-term sentiment tilted to the downside until structural signals confirm a shift.

Bitcoin price bounced as traders awaited the FOMC minutes and the White House Bitcoin reserve report. Bitcoin formed a Doji near $117k after rejecting the bearish channel’s resistance.

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