Bitcoin price prediction: BTC recovery stalls ahead of FOMC and Bitcoin reserve report
Bitcoin price opened Wednesday’s session following two back-to-back bearish days that capped a failed breakout attempt from the resistance trendline of its bearish channel.
Monday and Tuesday’s price action saw BTC declining toward $117,000, where the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart provided immediate technical support. That bounce produced a textbook daily Doji candle by Tuesday’s close, a candlestick formation that often reflects indecision or a possible reversal when appearing after a directional move.
Highlights
-Bitcoin gains 0.7% today after forming a Doji candle near $117,000 on declining volume
-RSI shift toward 50 as indecision, but no strong buying momentum yet
-Traders await FOMC minutes and White House Bitcoin report to shape BTC direction
The Doji’s significance is amplified by the positioning of the 4-hour RSI, which shifted from a bearish level of 43 toward the neutral 50 mark by Wednesday morning. This alignment of neutral RSI and indecision candle hints at the possibility of directional recalibration. Yet, the broader daily RSI remains at 58, showing weakening momentum compared to its peak above 60 two weeks ago. Bitcoin’s long-term price structure continues to trace lower highs and lower lows since retreating from its all-time high at $122,000.
BTC price dynamics (June - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Volume trends add another layer of context to the indecision. While Tuesday’s recovery from $117,000 was technically meaningful, the rebound occurred on declining volume. That volume profile suggests a lack of strong buyer conviction in the face of recent dips and reinforces the case for persistent bearish pressure unless a fundamental catalyst disrupts the pattern.
Bitcoin price holds 100 EMA, but a break lower could expose deeper retracement
As of the European session on Wednesday, July 30, Bitcoin had reached an intraday high near $118,400 and was posting a modest 0.7% gain. However, traders are more focused on the day’s fundamental triggers than the short-term bounce.
Market attention has turned to the upcoming FOMC minutes and a pivotal White House report expected to detail the number of Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government. There is also speculation about whether President Trump will move forward with establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. A favourable outcome could provide the fuel needed to push BTC decisively above the bearish channel and open the path toward new highs.
On the contrary, if the news lacks bullish substance, the current indecision may quickly resolve into downside pressure, especially if price breaks below the 4-hour 100 EMA. That would expose BTC to deeper pullbacks through the week.
Bitcoin faced strong selling pressure as whale deposits surged and retail demand stayed weak. Bitcoin stalled near $119,500 inside a descending channel after rejecting the $120,000 level.
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