Bitcoin price rallies 2% on new year as Coinbase premium index hits 12-month low
Despite a stellar 2024 that saw the cryptocurrency surge 120%, largely driven by the launch of crypto ETFs and former President Trump's election victory, Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,350, unchanged from its opening price in 2025 which had a modest recovery of 2% on the first day of the year after rebounding from a five-week low of $91,000. This latest move sets Bitcoin on track for its first consecutive two-day rally of the new year, as it trades at $95,500 in the European session.
Some recent challenges for Bitcoin’s recovery is the waning retail demand in the United States. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and other exchanges, fell to -0.23 on December 31, its lowest level in 12 months. A negative value signals selling pressure, and this decline coincided with Bitcoin briefly dropping near $91,000, its lowest price since late November 2024.
BTC price dynamics (January 2024 - January 2025). Source: CryptoQuant.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci, this drop is partly attributed to year-end low liquidity in the market. The last time the index reached similar levels was in January 2024, around the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. It also approached this range in late October before the US elections, when Bitcoin traded near $68,165 and now precedes the US presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20.
Bitcoin price forecast: $92K support holds as RSI signals potential upsideTechnical indicators suggest Bitcoin could extend its gains in the short term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is trending upwards but remains below overbought territory, hinting at further upside potential. However, immediate resistance levels are marked by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $96,000 and the psychological $100,000 level. On the downside, support is firmly established at $92,000.
While technical indicators suggest room for a short-term rally, broader market conditions could limit Bitcoin’s recovery. Hence, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $100,000 level and sustain a rally will depend on overcoming immediate resistance and reviving retail demand.
BlackRock's recent push into Bitcoin-related ETFs has bolstered institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin consistently found buying pressure preventing a deeper decline in December.
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