Toncoin price tests key resistance as bulls eye breakout

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Toncoin price update

Highlights

- Toncoin trades at $3.556 inside a rising channel after reclaiming all major EMAs.

- Resistance at $3.55–$3.65 has capped rallies since July, with $3.75–$4.00 as breakout targets.

- Net outflow of $3.33M on August 14 hints at possible accumulation as price holds near resistance.

Toncoin is trading at $3.556, with the 20-EMA at $3.459, the 50-EMA at $3.414, the 100-EMA at $3.379, and the 200-EMA at $3.297, all aligned upward. This configuration provides a supportive base, suggesting that dips into the $3.297–$3.459 band could attract buyers.

The $3.55–$3.65 zone has acted as a ceiling since late July, marked by multiple rejection wicks and the upper channel boundary. A breakout above $3.65 would open the way toward $3.75–$3.80, the July high, and potentially $4.00 if momentum builds. On the four-hour chart, RSI is at 63.20, above its signal average at 58.67, showing that momentum remains firm without yet reaching overbought conditions.

Daily structure signals bullish bias

On the daily chart, Toncoin price is nearing a “strong high” liquidity area around $3.64, a zone where breakout orders often cluster. Since June, the broader trend has been defined by higher lows, repeated change-of-character (CHoCH) patterns, and break-of-structure (BOS) signals, all indicating sustained buying pressure. Daily resistance mirrors the lower timeframe picture at $3.55–$3.75, with supply zones above $4.00 and then $5.50. A daily close above $3.75 would shift the medium-term outlook toward these higher targets.

TON price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Support is strongest in the $2.90–$3.00 range, which aligns with the 200-day EMA and a previously tested demand zone. As long as price holds above $3.30 on daily closes, the bullish case remains intact. A break below $3.00 would signal structural weakness and could pave the way for a decline toward $2.70.

On-chain flows and short-term scenarios

On-chain data from August 14 showed a net outflow of -$3.33 million while Toncoin traded at $3.565. Outflows can signal accumulation as assets move off exchanges, potentially tightening supply. Netflows in recent weeks have leaned toward outflows, though historical inflow spikes earlier in the year have aligned with short-term tops.

In the near term, a breakout above $3.65 with strong volume could drive a move to $3.75, and with sustained momentum, toward $4.00–$4.20. Failure to breach resistance could send price back to the channel’s midline at $3.48 or the 20-EMA at $3.459, with deeper pullbacks targeting the 50-EMA at $3.414 and the 100-EMA at $3.379. Only a decisive break below $3.30 would flip the short-term bias to bearish.

In prior analysis, we made clear the importance of Toncoin reclaiming its key EMAs and moving into the $3.55 resistance zone. That view remains intact, with the asset now pressing against the same barrier. A confirmed breakout above $3.65 could trigger a move toward the $3.75–$3.80 region and potentially $4.00, while a rejection would likely see price retest the mid-channel support around $3.48 before buyers re-enter.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.