XRP price prediction: Slips to $2.81 as profit-taking and Fed caution weigh on sentiment

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XRP price dips to $2.81 amid Fed caution

Highlights

- XRP price today trades near $2.81, down 1.25%, as profit-taking weighs ahead of Fed policy signals.

- Institutional inflows of $4.35 million suggest accumulation despite weak retail sentiment.

- Key support rests at $2.73–$2.60, with bulls needing a close above $3.10 to revive momentum.

Despite the near-term pressure, XRP remains one of the quarter’s stronger large-cap performers, benefiting from steady institutional flows and U.S. regulatory clarity that continues to differentiate it from peers.

On-chain and derivatives flows

Spot flows revealed a meaningful shift on Friday. Net inflows reached $4.35 million, reversing the persistent outflows logged in the prior two weeks. Historically, inflow spikes during corrections have signaled accumulation by larger accounts, even as retail sentiment softens. Still, cumulative net flows remain negative for the month, underscoring lingering caution until a consistent inflow trend materializes.

NG price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Derivatives activity points to cooling speculation. Total futures volume slipped 5.79 percent to $7.85 billion, while open interest eased 2.42 percent to $7.35 billion. Options interest collapsed by more than 70 percent, indicating a retreat in leveraged bets. The long/short ratio across major exchanges sits at 0.94, slightly favoring shorts. Yet account-level data show divergence: retail accounts remain more balanced, while top traders hold long exposure with ratios above 3.0. This positioning suggests larger players maintain structural bullishness despite short-term volatility. Liquidation flows also reveal resilience, with $11.52 million in positions wiped in the past 12 hours, mostly from shorts.

Technical analysis and macro backdrop

The daily chart shows XRP price breaking down from the $3.20–$3.40 resistance band, now testing the 100-day EMA near $2.73. A close beneath this level could expose deeper downside toward $2.60, followed by the $2.46 zone aligning with the 200-day EMA and a demand block from June.

The medium-term structure remains constructive, anchored by a higher-low pattern established earlier in the year. The July breakout above $3.00 reinforced bullish intent, though the current retracement appears corrective. Bulls will need to reclaim the 20-day EMA at $2.93 and break the descending trendline from the $3.80 high. A daily close above $3.10 would mark an early shift back to upward momentum. Momentum signals hint at stabilization. The relative strength index stands at 38, near oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure may be limited if key support holds.

Macro conditions remain pivotal. A hawkish Fed message could buoy the U.S. dollar, weighing on risk assets including XRP. Conversely, any dovish tilt could improve risk appetite, supporting a near-term recovery. At the structural level, Ripple’s expanding cross-border payment partnerships and clarity over its non-security status in the U.S. provide long-term support.

XRP short-term outlook

The near-term outlook for XRP is neutral to slightly bearish unless the $2.73–$2.60 support range holds. A decisive close above $3.10 would revive bullish momentum, with potential to retest $3.40 and $3.60. A breakdown below $2.60 risks a move toward the $2.20 accumulation zone from earlier this year.Institutional positioning and oversold technicals suggest downside may be cushioned, though broader risk sentiment tied to Fed guidance could continue to cap upside in the short run.

In earlier analysis, we highlighted XRP’s inability to sustain gains above layered supply between $2.95 and $3.10. That resistance band continues to frame near-term dynamics, with sellers repeatedly absorbing rallies. With price now hovering just above the 100-day EMA, the cautious tone we underscored in prior coverage remains firmly in place.

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