Seller dominance keeps Toncoin under pressure, price prediction sees limited upside

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Toncoin Slides 1.62% Today

Highlights

Toncoin (TON) trades at $3.118, down 1.62% for the day, and remains below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, indicating persistent seller dominance.
AlphaTON plans to convert part of its treasury into Toncoin and support decentralized projects on Telegram, but Toncoin’s total value locked is still just $142 million.
Bearish technicals signal continued downside; Toncoin is expected to consolidate between $3.035 and $3.068 with a less than 20% probability of price increase in the next five days.

AlphaTON treasury allocations signal rising institutional interest despite low adoption

AlphaTON’s plans to convert a portion of its treasury into Toncoin and back decentralized projects on Telegram highlight growing corporate interest in TON. This initiative supports staking and aims to accelerate decentralized finance and app development on the platform. Despite this, Toncoin’s total value locked stands at just $142 million, which is modest relative to established networks. The longer-term outlook thus remains tied to adoption momentum within the Telegram ecosystem.

Bearish momentum strengthens as indicators confirm resistance near intraday highs

The nearest dynamic resistance stands at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $3.33, while dynamic support is likely at the daily low. Momentum signals show a strong sell on MACD, a low-value ADX, and negative CCI, with RSI and Stoch RSI drifting just above oversold. Both BBP and the Awesome Oscillator signal a bearish tone, and price action remains near the upper end of today’s $3.086 – $3.113 intraday range amid low volatility. No significant divergences are present, and the general technical picture favors sustained bearish momentum.

Limited upside risk as consolidation likely under persistent selling pressure

For the next five trading days, Toncoin is expected to consolidate between $3.035 and $3.068, with an average level near $3.052. The probability of a price increase remains very low (less than 20%), making continued declines the more likely scenario. A sideways consolidation around $3.05 is the most probable case, while any break above $3.33 could trigger further upside and a bearish scenario would open the way to new lows below $3.035 if selling pressure intensifies.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Toncoin’s near-term outlook defined by a narrow consolidation below key moving averages, with probabilities favoring further downside. As long as price remains capped beneath the $3.33 resistance and with momentum indicators still negative, he expects limited upside and recommends caution. "Base case remains sideways-to-down as seller pressure persists — only a sustained break above $3.33 would have me reconsider the scenario."

Previously it was noted that the asset remained below a descending trendline and key moving average, with technicals pointing to a defensive market structure. Recent coverage highlighted that resistance caps upside potential unless consistent inflows emerge and buyers push through layered resistance.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.