Bitcoin price prediction: BTC sell-off stabilizes near $109,000 ahead of options expiry

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Sholanke Dele

26.09.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC sell-off stabilizes near $109,000 ahead of options expiry — BTC eye $110,000 max pain expiry level

Bitcoin price is stabilizing near $109,000 on Friday, September 26, after a steep decline on Thursday that took the market to a three-week low.

The consolidation comes at a critical moment, as the end of the month and quarter brings a significant options expiry event that could dictate the next directional move.

- Bitcoin consolidates near $109,000 in anticipation of quarterly options expiry

- BTC faces $17 billion expiry contracts while traders watch $110,000 level

- Bitcoin selloff erased September rally, $1 billion liquidations rattled leveraged positions

The selloff on Thursday pushed Bitcoin more than 4% lower, extending the week-to-date slide beyond 5% and erasing much of September’s earlier rally. Losses were partly driven by heightened geopolitical tension. Comments from Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov that NATO had effectively declared war on Russia, coupled with reports of an urgent NATO generals’ meeting, rattled the crypto markets. The uncertainty fed into risk aversion and weighed heavily on digital assets.

Bitcoin price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

BTC had been holding above the 100-day exponential moving average near $112,000 for much of the week, but Thursday’s break beneath that level surprised many traders. This breach triggered liquidations, as leveraged long positions were caught off guard. Data from Coinglass showed more than $1 billion in positions wiped out across the crypto market during the session, highlighting the vulnerability of overexposed participants.

Bitcoin options expiry today holds $17 billion notional contracts at stake

Attention has now shifted to the quarterly options expiry event scheduled for Friday. Around 146,000 contracts representing a notional value of $17 billion are set to expire. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.76, showing more calls than puts in play, although the balance is not extreme. The max pain level, which often acts as a gravitational pull during expiries, sits close to $110,000. This suggests dealers may attempt to steer price near that mark as contracts roll off.

The expiry coincides with the end of the month and quarter, raising the likelihood of heightened spot volatility. September opened near $108,100, so the current price remains only 1% above that point. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can sustain levels above $109,000 and build momentum above $110,000 once the expiry effects clear. A post-expiry lift could indicate reduced hedging pressure from dealers and open the door for renewed upside attempts.

For now, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. Geopolitical risk, technical breaks, and expiring derivatives have converged to create uncertainty. The market’s ability to reclaim and hold above $110,000 in the days following the quarterly expiry will be the key signal for whether the September rally can resume into October or whether downside risk intensifies.

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