Bitcoin price prediction: BTC recovers 2% but ETF withdrawals weigh on bullish conviction

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Sholanke Dele

23.10.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC recovers 2% but ETF withdrawals weigh on bullish conviction — Bitcoin institutional flows remain negative

Bitcoin price advanced sharply on Thursday, extending a short-term recovery from the previous day’s sideways consolidation. The cryptocurrency gained over 2% from Wednesday’s close at $107,600 to reach an intraday high of $110,300 during the European session. The breakout marked a shift in short-term momentum after price spent the prior session moving within a narrow range between $109,200 and $106,700.

- BTC rallies 2% to $110,300 as breakout above EMAs shifts short-term momentum.

- Fear and Greed Index at 28 reflects deep market pessimism during the current rebound.

- ETF outflows of $101 million signal institutions yet to support Bitcoin’s upward move.

On the hourly chart, the top of that consolidation zone at $109,200 had been capped by the 50 and 100 EMAs. The breakout above these levels in Thursday’s session indicates a technical bias turning in favor of buyers. However, the sustainability of this move remains uncertain, as broader sentiment continues to reflect pessimism among both retail and institutional participants.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Oct - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

Data from the Binance Fear and Greed Index shows sentiment sitting deep in the “extreme fear” zone at 28, highlighting weak confidence in the rally. Institutional flows also support this narrative. On October 22, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows totalling $101.29 million. Major funds such as Grayscale’s GBTC, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Ark & 21Shares each saw withdrawals exceeding $50 million, while only BlackRock’s IBIT and Valkyrie’s BRRR recorded inflows of $73.63 million and $2.14 million respectively. The imbalance in flows reveals that institutional traders have yet to return to net accumulation, a condition often needed to sustain broader rallies.

Sellers may regain control if BTC fails to sustain above $110,000 level

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price structure remains vulnerable. On the four-hour chart, the upward trendline that had supported the recovery since the weekend was broken on October 22, shifting the broader setup into a corrective phase. Thursday’s early uptrend is now retesting that broken trendline, which has turned into resistance and coincides with the 50 EMA on the four-hour chart.

This confluence of resistance raises the risk that current gains could fade if sellers reassert control near the $110,000 zone. A failure to hold above this level may see price reverse toward $106,700, the previous day’s low and a key liquidity area. Although short-term momentum appears positive, both sentiment and ETF flows suggest the rally may lack the conviction needed for sustained follow-through. A decisive close above $111,000 would be required to confirm a genuine shift in trend direction.

We discussed Bitcoin consolidating near $108,300 on Wednesday after a failed breakout triggered quick long position exits. Market sentiment turned defensive as traders reassessed volatility from the sharp intraday reversal.

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