Bitcoin price faces key resistance as spent output data suggests market volatility
Bitcoin’s price action this week has been defined by a peak at $102,700 and a battle to reclaim key moving averages. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals a notable movement of long-held Bitcoin, potentially adding further pressure.
Bitcoin initially climbed to $102,700 earlier in the week, a level that previously resisted price advances in January. Once again, this resistance proved strong, leading to a price pullback over the past two days. As of yesterday, Bitcoin's price was constrained by the 50-day EMA at $98,800. During today’s Asian session, Bitcoin saw a 1.7% rise from $96,600, now trading at $98,000 and approaching the 50-day EMA once again.
BTC price dynamics (December 2024 - February 2025). Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, the 50-EMA now aligns with the psychological $100,000 level, reinforcing it as the next point of resistance. A clear break above this zone would indicate renewed bullish momentum, while failure to do so could increase the likelihood of further declines.
Bitcoin price outlook: on-chain selling pressure might reverse early gains
On-chain data from XBTManager highlights a significant shift in Bitcoin’s spent output age bands, with 49,700 BTC from the 6-12 month holding category being moved today. Historically, such movements from long-held Bitcoin can introduce selling pressure, potentially driving short-term price declines.
If Bitcoin reverses gains later today, it would mark the third consecutive daily decline, setting a three-day low. However, price declines may be cushioned by the near-term support at $95,800, where buyers could step in.
Bitcoin’s price action hinges on whether it can break past the resistance at $98,800 and the $100,000. The combination of technical resistance and on-chain selling pressure suggests increased volatility, making the coming sessions crucial for market direction.
Large liquidations erased $2 billion in long positions, limiting Bitcoin's upside. As a result, Bitcoin struggled to break above $100,000, facing resistance and signs of weakness.
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