XRP price prediction: Downtrend ahead? Market consolidates as ETF launches break records

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Xrp slips 0.31% today on bearish trend

Highlights

Canary Capital's U.S. spot XRP ETF launched on Nasdaq with over $58 million in first-day trading volume and $250 million in inflows, driven by large institutional pre-orders.
Custody of the new XRP ETF is split between Gemini Trust and BitGo, facilitating risk management and institutional participation in the product.
SEC regulatory provisions and system updates by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation enabled streamlined approval and efficient settlement for XRP-linked securities, with more XRP ETFs expected soon.

Record ETF inflows and streamlined approvals boost institutional XRP demand

The debut of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF by Canary Capital on Nasdaq broke records, reaching over $58 million in first-day trading volume and attracting $250 million in inflows, supported by substantial institutional pre-orders and split custody between Gemini Trust and BitGo. Regulatory approval was streamlined by SEC provisions and system updates by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, ensuring efficient settlement for XRP-linked securities. Additional XRP ETF launches by other asset managers are anticipated as regulatory reviews accelerate.

Bearish momentum persists as oscillators approach oversold conditions

Momentum signals show a bearish setup, with MACD on D1 in “strong sell” territory and ADX at 34.7 reflecting a firmly established downtrend. RSI (41.6), CCI (–85.8), and Stoch RSI (41.2) indicate the asset is drifting toward oversold conditions but not yet at an extreme low, while BBP’s negative read suggests sellers dominate short-term momentum. The daily performance shows a small decline, slipping 0.31% ($2.294 previous close to a $2.2431 open), with no notable opening gap. The current price sits mid-range for the day amid moderate volatility and pressure following the open. There is mild divergence between mildly oversold oscillators and firmly bearish momentum, with intraday weakness broadly confirming bearish signals.

Further declines favored as buy signals remain absent in weekly outlook

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is adjusted to $2.05 – $2.50 to reflect realistic volatility around the current level. The probability of a sustained price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely based on the lack of buy signals among key weekly indicators. The baseline scenario calls for XRP to consolidate between support near $2.05 and resistance around $2.38. In a bullish scenario, a surge above resistance could target the upper band near $2.50. Conversely, a bearish break below $2.05 could expose XRP to further downside toward round-number psychological levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that XRP is demonstrating clear technical weakness despite record ETF inflows and regulatory tailwinds. He sees persistent bearish momentum, with price holding below all major moving averages and no buy signals from key weekly indicators. The analyst remains defensive for the week, expecting consolidation between $2.05 and $2.38 unless a breakout occurs. "As long as XRP remains under dynamic resistance and fails to attract sustained buying interest, the risk of further decline outweighs upside potential."

Previously it was noted that crypto and fintech companies are filing applications en masse to obtain trust licenses in order to enter the U.S. banking system. Traditional banks have pushed back as groups like the Bank Policy Institute have warned that allowing companies to establish any form of banking structure without equivalent supervision could create unfair competition and potential risks.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.