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Despite Bitcoin's recent price stagnation, analysts argue that the bull cycle is far from over. Market watchers calling a cycle top may be premature, as key indicators suggest BTC is undergoing a mid-bull correction rather than a full-scale downturn
Bitcoin’s cycle mirrors 2021 trends
Chris Burniske, former Ark Invest crypto executive and VC partner at Placeholder, believes Bitcoin is experiencing a temporary pullback, similar to mid-2021. He points out that, during that period, BTC fell nearly 50%, only to recover and hit new all-time highs later in the year.
«I don’t think this is a sign of a cycle top, rather a mid-bull pullback that makes everyone question god,» Burniske stated. «Feels a lot more like April-June 2021, where things fell 50-80% depending on the coin, many said it was over, and then we ripped in 2H ’21.»
Indeed, historical data supports this view. In early 2021, Bitcoin tumbled from $64K to $30K before rebounding to $69K in the second half of the year. Whether history will repeat remains uncertain, but analysts suggest that current conditions resemble that same cycle pattern.
Market cooling as STH MVRV signals reset
A key metric, Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV, aligns with Burniske’s assessment. According to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler, the market appears to be exiting an overheated phase, with STH MVRV declining from 1.35 to neutral levels.
«An STH MVRV above 1.30–1.35 typically signals an overheated market, often leading to sell-offs,” Adler explained. “A return to average levels points to the end of a local overheated phase.»
If the indicator drops below the average, it could signal a local bottom, similar to what was observed last September. However, market sentiment remains cautious due to potential policy shifts under President Trump, particularly regarding tariff plans.
Why $96K is a key level for Bitcoin
Another crucial metric to watch is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), which currently stands at $96K. This level has acted as both support and resistance. A sustained drop below it could trigger panic selling among short-term holders, while a rebound could reinforce the ongoing uptrend.
Notably, Bitcoin recently dipped to $91K on February 3 but has since attempted to hold above $96K over the past four trading days. This suggests that the STH RP level remains a critical threshold for market stability.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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