Bitcoin price prediction: BTC rebounds 11% from November dip, but conviction stays weak

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Sholanke Dele

25.11.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC rebounds 11% from November dip, but conviction stays weak — Bitcoin dropped 33% this month

Bitcoin price has suffered a sharp November selloff, losing 33% from its early October peak of $126,000 to a late-month low near $81,000. That marks the steepest monthly drop since the June 2022 crash. This slide has been shaped by widespread risk-off sentiment and forced liquidations, pushing the Binance Fear and Greed Index into extreme fear territory around 15 for several consecutive sessions. Traders have reacted by cutting exposure across speculative assets, dragging the crypto market lower.

- Bitcoin dropped 33% this month to $81,000, its steepest fall since 2022.

- Price rebounded 11% from $80,500 trendline support, aided by the 100-week moving average.

- Flat open interest and weaker long-to-short ratio show recovery lacks strong conviction.

The market weakness has been met by an important long-term technical confluence. Bitcoin's rising trendline from the $16,000 bottom of the 2022 crash has cushioned the current decline at the $80,500 level. This bullish trendline has supported a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart and aligns closely with the 100-week moving average. These two technical factors have stalled the selloff and triggered a mild bounce.

Bitcoin price dynamics (July 2021 - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

From last week’s low at $80,500 to Monday’s high at $89,300, Bitcoin posted an 11% recovery. The move lifted the price to a four-day high as the new week began. However, the quality of this bounce has been questioned by market participants watching futures data. Open interest has stayed flat throughout the recovery, suggesting traders are not deploying fresh capital behind the move. At the same time, the long-to-short ratio has fallen from 3.0 to 2.1, indicating a weaker bullish conviction.

Bitcoin traders eye $92,000–$95,000 zone if price clears Monday’s recovery high

Tuesday’s performance has shown hesitation. By the European session, Bitcoin traded flat on the day, caught between conflicting forces. While short-term technicals such as the 1-hour 20 EMA are offering support, the lack of momentum in futures metrics continues to weigh on the outlook.

If Bitcoin pushes above Monday’s high, it could signal a broader retracement toward the $92,000 to $95,000 region. But in the absence of stronger open interest or renewed long positioning, the recent bounce may be short-lived. The market is watching for clearer signs of institutional accumulation or macro catalysts before reloading bullish bets into December.

We discussed how Bitcoin stalled below $88,000 after a brief rebound from its seven-month low. ETF inflows rose to $238 million as long trades rebuilt slowly despite neutral RSI readings.

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