Hyperliquid price prediction: Momentum remains weak after $85.8M token unstaking

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Hyperliquid rises 7.57% to $34.51 today

Highlights

The Hyperliquid team recently unstaked approximately 2.6 million HYPE tokens valued at $85.8 million.
Completion of the HIP-3 upgrade last month allows third-party developers to launch permissionless Perp DEXs on Hyperliquid by staking 500,000 HYPE.
Hyperliquid will be an initial launch platform for Paxos’s USDG0 stablecoin, targeting derivatives trading and on-chain collateral use cases.

Token unlocks and platform launches shape market sentiment

The Hyperliquid team recently unstaked approximately 2.6 million HYPE tokens valued at $85.8 million. Last month, the HIP-3 upgrade was completed, enabling third-party developers to deploy permissionless Perp DEXs on the network by staking 500,000 HYPE. Hyperliquid has also been selected as an initial launch platform for Paxos’s USDG0 stablecoin, planned for use in derivatives trading and on-chain collateral.

Seller dominance persists as short-lived upside collides with weak momentum

Momentum signals on the daily chart remain weak with the MACD in firm sell territory and a low ADX value. Multiple oversold readings are evident in the CCI and BBP, with the latter showing pronounced seller dominance. RSI and Stoch RSI are below mid-level, reinforcing a lack of bullish momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator also supports the current downtrend. Today's session saw a clear upside gap (from $32.08 to $33.75) and a strong 7.57% gain, with the price currently trading near the high of the daily range and volatility running high. Intraday tone is characterized by strength toward highs, but momentum and oscillators give conflicting signals and point to caution against full trend reversals.

Low bullish odds as volatility anchors prices within tight range

For the next five sessions, the normalized trading corridor is projected between $33.00 and $37.50, which keeps price action close to the current level and reflects recent volatility. Based on momentum indicators, there is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, making a further decline more likely. The baseline scenario is sideway price action within this corridor. A bullish move would require a breakout above $37.82, while a bearish scenario sees price dropping below $33.00, opening the path for further losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Hyperliquid (HYPE) locked in a bearish structure, with prices unable to overtake key moving averages despite recent project upgrades. He notes that daily indicators are predominantly negative and that even a strong intraday rally does not change the prevailing momentum picture. Kharitonov remains cautious given the low probability for a sustained rally and emphasizes the risk of further decline unless $37.82 is clearly broken. "Base case is sideways trading within $33.00–$37.50, and I would not trust any bullish move unless it holds above resistance."

Previously it was noted that seller dominance continued intraday amid mixed momentum and oversold signals. Last time we reported that persistent selling as volatility spikes characterized market activity and maintained a downside bias.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.