7.98% drop for HYPE — sellers dominate as support breaks

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Hyperliquid slides 7.98% to $33.19 today

Highlights

Hyperliquid unstaked and transferred 2.6 million HYPE tokens (about $90 million) from staking to a spot wallet, with some tokens restaked or used for tests.
The project unlocked 9.92 million HYPE (valued at $312 million and 2.66% of supply) after its 2024 token generation event, plus a separate 1.75 million HYPE unlock for developers and contributors.
Daily network fees reached $2 million on rising activity, and Hyperliquid introduced an Automated Downsizing (ADL) system to enhance risk management.

Supply expansion and internal flows as team manages major unlocks

The Hyperliquid team recently unstaked and transferred 2.6 million HYPE tokens (around $90 million) from staking to a spot wallet, as confirmed by on-chain records, and some of these tokens were restaked or used for small-scale tests. Hyperliquid also unlocked 9.92 million HYPE (about $312 million, 2.66% of supply) following its 2024 token generation event, in addition to a scheduled unlock of 1.75 million HYPE for developers and contributors. There have been no external investor unlocks since no fundraising rounds occurred, while the project also introduced an Automated Downsizing (ADL) system to strengthen risk management and reported daily network fees of $2 million driven by rising activity.

Mixed momentum signals as sellers dominate intraday volatility

Momentum indicators show further weakness on the daily chart. Both MACD and ADX flag selling pressure, with ADX at 21.15 indicating only modest trend strength. RSI at 43.09 suggests a bearish tilt but is not oversold, while Stoch RSI is overbought, and CCI remains neutral, revealing divergence among oscillators. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) stands in the overbought zone, but with a negative daily move and the price falling 7.98% to the bottom of today’s range ($32.88 – $34.55), sellers dominate intraday momentum. There was a clear gap lower at the open, intraday volatility is high, and the tone is under continued downside pressure after the session began.

Downside favored as volatility bands tighten around key levels

For the next five trading days, the expected range is normalized to $30.00 – $36.00, setting a volatility band relative to current levels. Probability of further downside is very high (more than 80%), with a price increase seen as much less likely. The baseline scenario sees HYPE consolidating between support and resistance, while a bullish scenario would require a break above $36.35. A bearish scenario comes into play if the price falls below $32.88, potentially triggering a deeper move toward the $30.00 area.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees HYPE under significant technical pressure after multiple supply unlocks and a sharp drop below key averages. He highlights that negative momentum and absence of major support point to downside dominance. The analyst believes the token is trapped in a bearish consolidation and warns that a break of $32.88 would open the path toward $30.00. "With sellers firmly in control and no strong reversal signal, I see little reason to fight the trend until $36.35 is reclaimed."

Previously it was noted that seller dominance persists as short-lived upside collides with weak momentum. In recent trading sessions, market activity was driven by multiple oversold readings are evident in the CCI, highlighting ongoing downside pressure.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.