Will Bitcoin rival gold as central bank reserve asset?

​Ray Dalio does not believe in Bitcoin’s prospects as a reserve asset. Although BTC has long been part of the legendary investor’s portfolio, he believes this cryptocurrency is not suitable for central banks. However, not everyone agrees with this assessment.

Why Dalio doubts Bitcoin

Ray Dalio’s main concern about Bitcoin is its transparency. What BTC supporters call an advantage may be a problem for central banks. After all, all transactions on the network are recorded on a public blockchain, and the movement of funds can be tracked almost in real time.

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Formally, Bitcoin addresses are not tied to the names of their owners. However, they are pseudonymous, not fully anonymous. Analytics firms and law enforcement agencies have long learned how to link wallets to specific users, companies, or organizations.

For a central bank, this is a particularly sensitive issue. If a state begins accumulating or moving large amounts of BTC, the market will notice it much faster than in the case of gold or traditional reserve assets. According to Dalio, this is why central banks are in no hurry to consider Bitcoin a full-fledged reserve.

There is another problem as well. Bitcoin still often behaves unlike a safe-haven asset. Dalio points to its high correlation with the Nasdaq and technology stocks. In other words, during periods of stress, BTC may move not separately from the stock market, but together with it.

Against this backdrop, gold retains its main advantage: a long history, a deep market, and recognition within the global financial system. It has remained part of central bank reserves for decades, while Bitcoin is still too young, volatile, and politically controversial for such institutions.

Why the market still chooses BTC

Not everyone agrees with Dalio’s assessment. One of Wall Street’s best-known macro investors, Paul Tudor Jones, on the contrary, calls Bitcoin one of the best tools for protecting against inflation. According to him, after the massive monetary expansion in 2020, it was clear that demand for defensive assets would rise, and BTC turned out to be the best bet among them.

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Jones’s main argument is Bitcoin’s scarcity. BTC issuance is capped at 21 million coins, and less than 1 million remain to be mined. Gold, by contrast, increases its supply by several percent every year. That is why Bitcoin supporters believe that, in the long term, it could become a harder inflation hedge than the traditional precious metal.

Market behavior also supports this view. According to JPMorgan, after the conflict with Iran, some investors began shifting their defensive trade from gold to Bitcoin. According to The Block, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for the third consecutive month, while gold ETFs are still recovering from outflows.

The first test for central banks

The main example showing that the Bitcoin debate has already moved beyond the private market is Czechia. Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl spoke directly at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in favor of central banks considering BTC as part of their reserves. According to him, financial regulators need to think beyond traditional assets if they want to build portfolios for the future.

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The Czech National Bank has already gone further than most of its peers. In January 2025, Michl first proposed considering Bitcoin as a reserve diversification tool, later allowed for allocating up to 5% of reserves to BTC, and then received board approval for a deeper analysis. In November 2025, the CNB bought digital assets for a test portfolio that included Bitcoin.

At Bitcoin 2026, Michl referred to the bank’s internal analysis. According to him, the Czech central bank manages around $180 billion in reserves, and adding just 1% BTC could increase the portfolio’s expected return while keeping the overall risk roughly unchanged. The explanation is simple: Bitcoin has a low correlation with other reserve assets, which means it can work as a diversification tool.

The U.S. is betting on a strategic reserve

Another important signal is coming from the United States. Donald Trump’s administration is promoting the idea of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, while lawmakers are working to enshrine it in law. This is not the same as the Federal Reserve’s foreign exchange and gold reserves, but the very fact of such a discussion shows that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed not only as a market asset, but also as part of a state financial strategy.

The reserve is expected to be based on BTC already held on the US government’s balance sheet and obtained through criminal or civil forfeitures. However, the initiative could go further. The American Reserves Modernization Act would allow the purchase of 1 million BTC over five years using “budget-neutral strategies.”

For now, this is more of a political case than a central bank one. But such decisions can gradually change how governments view Bitcoin. If the US legally establishes a strategic BTC reserve, it will become harder for other countries and regulators to see the cryptocurrency purely as a speculative instrument.

So Dalio is right about one thing: Bitcoin has not yet become the new gold for central banks. Volatility, blockchain transparency, cyber risks, and its short history compared with gold are still standing in its way. But the market, the Czech example, and US steps show that BTC is already moving toward reserve-asset status. Most likely, in the coming years, it will not replace gold, but it may take a place alongside it.