Silver price forecast: XAG/USD breaks six-day range to hit $61.6 record high

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Silver hits record high before FOMC statement

Highlights

Silver breaks six-day range and jumps 4.7% after strong U.S. labor data
XAG/USD hits $61.6 record high as traders price in Fed rate cut
Profit-taking may emerge near $62 if Powell signals a pause in rate reductions

The breakout followed the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data. The ADP Employment Change and JOLTS job openings both came in higher than prior readings, lifting the dollar index temporarily. However, instead of retreating, silver extended higher as traders continued pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut, betting that recent data would not derail easing plans.

Silver price dynamics (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

By Wednesday’s European session, silver added another 1.5% to trade near $61.6, a record high. This pushed week-to-date gains to 5.5% and lifted the daily RSI into overbought territory at 75, its highest level since October. Despite short-term exhaustion signals, momentum remains firmly bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the day.

Silver rally at risk of profit-taking if Powell delivers hawkish cut

Fed funds futures now suggest nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut, which would be the third straight reduction and bring the federal funds target range down to 3.50% to 3.75%. A rate cut of that scale would likely pressure the dollar further and support silver’s push above the $62 mark.

Still, traders are preparing for what many expect to be a “hawkish cut.” While the rate cut itself may be delivered, the messaging from Chair Jerome Powell could hint at a higher threshold for further reductions. If the tone proposes that this cut is the last for now, it could dampen sentiment across commodity markets. For silver, which is already extended at record highs, such a message may prompt a wave of profit-taking.

In that scenario, the pullback could test the $59 area. The 20 EMA on the 4-hour chart has already climbed to that level and now coincides with the previous resistance zone from the consolidation. That zone may act as near-term support and determine whether the breakout structure stays intact through the week.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver held near its all-time high as traders monitored the Fed decision and labor data. Jobs figures were expected to determine breakout potential as consolidation tightened near record levels.

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