Silver price forecast: XAG/USD retests record high as traders await Powell guidance

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XAG/USD retests range top ahead of Powell guidance

Highlights

Silver holds near all-time high as traders monitor Fed decision and labor data
Range top retest follows strong rebound from the 1-hour 100 EMA earlier in today's European session
Jobs figures may determine breakout potential as consolidation tightens near record levels

During Tuesday’s European session, silver is once again testing the upper boundary of the current range. The move followed a rebound off the 100 EMA on the one-hour chart after intraday losses earlier in the Asian session. From that support, silver has managed to gain 1.3% intraday, reattempting to break through the resistance zone that has capped upside over the past week.

Silver price dynamics (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

This retest of the record high comes just one day before the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Investors are focused on the updated dot plot and forward guidance from Chair Jerome Powell. The market consensus is leaning toward a rate cut, not only this week, but with expectations extending into 2026. This shift has weighed on the U.S. dollar, helping to maintain bullish conditions for silver.

Jobs data outcome could decide direction as consolidation tightens near record highs

More than monetary policy alone is in focus. Persistent geopolitical tensions are helping to sustain silver’s safe-haven appeal. However, upcoming employment data due later today could temporarily influence sentiment. The ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings are expected to offer further clues about the strength of the U.S. labor market. If those releases miss expectations, they would reinforce the case for easing and boost the argument for a breakout in silver toward uncharted price levels.

On the technical side, failure to break above the consolidation range could push silver back toward support levels. The 100 EMA on the one-hour chart, which provided today’s intraday bounce, would be the first line of defense. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could break that support, exposing the 57.0 level. This zone aligns with the 50 EMA on the four-hour chart and could provide a key pivot for bulls and bears.

As it stands, silver’s month-to-date performance is still positive. The tight consolidation near the top suggests that buyers are not rushing to take profits and instead are awaiting a catalyst to validate a sustained upward move. If macroeconomic conditions tip toward lower rates and weaker labor data, silver could break out of this tightening range and expand to record highs.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver attempted a consolidation breakout as rate-cut expectations strengthened. Core PCE inflation data came in softer, reinforcing bets on an earlier Federal Reserve policy shift.

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