Costco stock price forecast: downside risk persists as Costco stock drops 1.71% to $845.86

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Costco slides 1.71% to $845.86 today

Highlights

Costco Wholesale posted first-quarter net sales of $65.98 billion, up 8.2%, and earnings per share of $4.50, both exceeding analyst expectations.
Membership income surged 14%, fueled by executive membership upgrades and renewals, emphasizing continued growth in high-margin recurring revenue streams.
Costco is maintaining its regular dividend and has initiated legal proceedings contesting federal tariffs on imported goods, signaling potential cost-saving efforts.

Recurring revenue strength and legal response bolster positive sentiment

Costco Wholesale reported first-quarter results with net sales rising 8.2% to $65.98 billion and earnings per share of $4.50, both above expectations. Membership income increased by 14%, driven by executive upgrades and renewals, highlighting ongoing strength in recurring revenues. The company also continues its regular dividend and has initiated legal action to contest federal tariffs on imported goods.

Oversold signals and low volatility reinforce intraday bearish dominance

Momentum readings remain weak, with daily MACD and ADX both signaling a lack of bullish participation and a dominant bearish trend. RSI is at 32.33 with Stoch RSI and CCI both flagged as oversold, while BBP is deeply negative at -2.18, confirming strong seller dominance throughout the session. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with the bearish tone. The stock opened with a slight downside gap from the previous close and is currently near today’s low of $848.70 within a narrow intraday range, indicating low volatility and persistent pressure since the open. Intraday performance and momentum signals are in agreement, with no positive divergences.

Sideways range likely as bearish risks outweigh upside chance

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $825 to $858. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a meaningful upside move, while the likelihood of further decline remains much higher. The baseline scenario is for the price to consolidate sideways within this defined range. A bullish scenario would require a sustained move above $858 and the Kijun resistance, potentially targeting higher averages, but technicals offer little support for this outcome. In the bearish scenario, a break below $825 could trigger further downside momentum as oversold conditions persist.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, financial markets expert at Traders Union, sees Costco’s fundamentals as strong given robust sales growth and rising membership income. He notes that macro and sentiment pressures are currently suppressing the share price, despite the company’s positive operational results and proactive risk management on tariffs. The analyst observes that momentum indicators and technicals remain bearish, limiting near-term upside potential. However, with solid recurring revenues and a focused legal strategy, Karapetjanc expects sideways consolidation with a constructive bias. "If Costco maintains its fundamental momentum, any stabilization near current levels could spark renewed investor confidence for the next leg higher."

Last time, analysts noted that Costco shares continued to experience broad-based bearish momentum, trading below major moving averages with momentum oscillators indicating a persistent downtrend and the stock nearing oversold levels. Previously, it was reported that key resistance is set at $902 while immediate support remains near $874, with volatility bands implying a higher probability of further downside or consolidation within this range.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.