Us dollar vs yen: macro data and technical strength underpin rise toward ¥156

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Us dollar vs yen rises 0.12% today

Highlights

USD/JPY traded higher after profit-taking in the yen and a partial rebound in the US currency, following the yen's pullback from a two-week high.
Mixed US employment data and a decline in US Treasury yields have contributed to renewed volatility and directional uncertainty in USD/JPY trading.
Markets are focused on forthcoming US economic data releases for direction, as macroeconomic factors continue to influence USD/JPY dynamics.

Profit-taking and mixed data sway yen as US macro factors loom

Recent forex market moves for the us dollar vs yen have been influenced by profit-taking activity and a partial rebound in the US currency after the Japanese yen retreated from a two-week high. Mixed US employment data and a decline in US Treasury yields have further impacted the pair’s direction, reflecting macroeconomic factors shaping USD/JPY dynamics. Market participants are closely watching anticipation around upcoming US economic data releases for additional cues.

Bullish momentum persists despite overbought signals near resistance

On the daily chart, the nearest dynamic support comes from the Ichimoku Kijun level at ¥155.78, with the MA-50 as additional support and a key psychological resistance at ¥156.00. Momentum indicators remain broadly bullish: MACD signals a strong buy, ADX reveals weak trend strength, and both RSI and Stoch RSI suggest there is still room for further gains, although intraday signals show some overbought conditions. BBP indicates mild oversold readings, but short-term momentum is upward with buyers dominant over recent sessions. There is slight divergence between BBP’s oversold stance and bullish momentum, so while buyers are in control, a measured approach is advised.

Further upside likely unless dollar demand sharply declines

Over the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is between ¥155.00 and ¥157.50, with price action likely anchored near current levels. The probability of further gains is high (exceeding 80%), while a pronounced bearish reversal appears unlikely unless demand for the dollar sharply wanes. Baseline scenario projects sideways trading, but if buyers push through ¥156.00, the next resistance at ¥157.50 becomes the target. Conversely, a fall below ¥155.00 would shift focus to lower supports, though overall momentum and trend signals continue to favor upward moves as long as the price holds above recent supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/JPY holding firm above key technical supports, but notes mixed macro signals and cautious momentum readings. He believes profit-taking and conflicting indicator signals could cap upside, especially with overbought conditions showing on intraday charts. The analyst expects a sideways-to-cautious continuation near ¥156.00, but flags risk if the pair breaks below ¥155.00. "My view is defensive until USD/JPY makes a clear breakout above ¥156.00 — otherwise, I stay on the sidelines and watch for more decisive signals."

Previously it was reported that USD/JPY is trading below short- and medium-term moving averages, signaling ongoing short-term weakness, while steady support from a robust long-term uptrend remains. Technical indicators show mixed momentum with a bullish daily MACD but bearish readings on RSI and oscillators, highlighting fragile near-term upside as the pair remains capped by resistance near ¥156 and supported around ¥155.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.