Nvidia stock lifts 1.1% amid plans to ship H200 chips to China in February

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Nvidia stock lifts

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Nvidia stock gained 1.1% following reports that it plans to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid-February 2026.
The 50-day SMA near $185 is acting as resistance, with upside potential toward $200 if the breakout holds.
Regulatory approval in China remains a key short-term catalyst for price direction.

Nvidia's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits just above $185, and price is now attempting to break through this near-term resistance. The 200-day SMA, meanwhile, is well below at approximately $140, confirming that the long-term trend remains strongly bullish despite recent short-term volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the neutral zone (mid-50s), suggesting there's room for upward movement before overbought conditions emerge.

Volume trends have been lighter than average in December, pointing to a wait-and-see stance among institutional investors, likely due to macro and policy uncertainty around U.S.–China chip trade. A sustained move above $188–190 would be technically significant, signaling bullish continuation and opening the door to a re-test of the $200–210 zone. On the downside, $170 remains a critical support level; if broken, Nvidia may slide toward $155–160, where the stock found support in October.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (October 2025 - December 2025). Source: TradingView

Recent options activity also reflects growing interest around Nvidia’s short-term direction, with elevated open interest in the $190 and $200 call strikes for January expirations. This positioning suggests that traders are anticipating a potential breakout, possibly linked to upcoming catalysts such as further clarity on export approvals or early Q1 earnings expectations. However, put volumes have also risen slightly at the $170 strike, indicating that some market participants are hedging against downside risks in the event of regulatory setbacks or broader tech sector weakness.

China H200 export approval drives fresh upside potential

Nvidia plans to begin shipping its high-end H200 AI chips to China by mid-February 2026, according to Reuters. This follows U.S. export policy adjustments that now allow such shipments under licensing conditions and a 25% tariff. Previously, these advanced chips were restricted under national security concerns, prompting Nvidia to develop lower-spec variants such as the H20 to serve Chinese clients.

The H200 is Nvidia’s most powerful AI accelerator based on the Hopper architecture and has been in high demand globally from hyperscalers and AI startups. Initial shipments to China will reportedly draw from existing inventory of up to 80,000 units, followed by new orders as domestic Chinese demand accelerates in 2026. Large Chinese tech firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance are expected to be among the primary buyers, with analysts estimating the total addressable market could reach $4–5 billion annually if full access resumes.

However, geopolitical friction remains unresolved. While Nvidia awaits final approval from Beijing to begin deliveries, several U.S. lawmakers are demanding public disclosure of licensing decisions, citing national security concerns. This keeps a layer of uncertainty around the revenue timing and scale.

Price scenarios as market weighs export impact

The bullish case for Nvidia depends on the successful execution of its H200 export plan to China. If Beijing approves shipments by February and Chinese cloud providers begin placing volume orders, Nvidia could break above the $190 technical level, with a re-test of $200–210 likely in Q1 2026. This scenario would not only boost short-term revenue but reinforce Nvidia’s leadership in global AI infrastructure. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America continue to hold price targets in the $240–260 range.

A neutral outcome would involve prolonged regulatory delays, keeping Nvidia range-bound between $170 and $188 as investors wait for clarity. In this case, the stock may still benefit from strong data center demand and upcoming product cycles (e.g., Rubin platform in late 2026), but sentiment would remain cautious.

Bernstein points to a disconnect between Nvidia’s strong fundamentals and its underperformance relative to the broader semiconductor sector, driven by valuation compression rather than weakening earnings. Despite rising profit estimates, Nvidia’s forward P/E has dropped 27% this year to under 25x — a level that ranks in the 11th percentile of its 10-year valuation history.

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