Gold price forecast: XAU holds $4,630 as policy uncertainty and geopolitics drive demand

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Gold demand fueled by uncertainty

Highlights

Gold hits a new all-time high above $4,630 on easing inflation signals.
Rate-cut expectations and Fed credibility concerns fuel haven demand.
Geopolitical risk reinforces gold’s defensive appeal.

The latest advance reflects sustained capital rotation rather than speculative excess. With confidence in monetary policy credibility under strain and geopolitical tensions escalating, gold has emerged as the primary hedge against both macro uncertainty and institutional risk.

Technical structure remains firmly bullish

On the daily chart, gold’s technical structure remains unequivocally bullish. Price is trending well above all major EMAs, with the 20-day EMA near $4,440 acting as first-line dynamic support. The 50-day EMA around $4,280 and the 100-day EMA near $4,065 continue to slope higher, confirming strong trend alignment across timeframes. The 200-day EMA, still near $3,740, underscores the depth and maturity of the ongoing bull cycle.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Pullbacks over recent months have been shallow and quickly absorbed, with no evidence of distribution even as price reaches new highs. Momentum indicators reinforce that assessment. Daily RSI remains above 70, signaling sustained buying pressure rather than a short-lived spike. While this places gold in overbought territory, the indicator has stayed elevated for extended periods throughout this rally without triggering meaningful reversals. The absence of bearish divergence keeps the upside bias intact.

Intraday structure supports continuation with moderation. On the 30-minute chart, gold remains supported by a rising Supertrend near $4,605, while parabolic SAR continues to track below price, confirming short-term bullish control. However, price action has begun to compress between $4,630 and $4,640, suggesting that momentum is pausing as gains are digested. This behavior typically points to consolidation or shallow retracement rather than aggressive selling.

Macro and geopolitical forces underpin the rally

The fundamental backdrop remains decisively supportive. December inflation data reinforced the view that underlying price pressures in the U.S. are easing, prompting futures markets to price in two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, above the central bank’s current median projection. Lower real yield expectations have strengthened gold’s relative appeal against interest-bearing assets.

At the same time, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence have intensified following a criminal probe linked to Chair Jerome Powell’s June testimony. Powell has described the situation as political pressure aimed at influencing monetary policy, a narrative that has unsettled institutional confidence. Historically, periods of perceived central bank vulnerability have coincided with increased demand for hard assets, a pattern now repeating itself.

Geopolitical risk is adding another layer of support. Rising tensions tied to potential U.S. involvement in Iran, alongside explicit tariff threats targeting countries trading with Tehran, have elevated global risk premiums. Investors are increasingly hedging against tail risks rather than chasing growth, a shift that favors gold over equities and cyclical assets.

Levels that define the next phase

From a tactical standpoint, gold remains firmly in buy-on-dips mode. Immediate support is defined near $4,600, followed by stronger structural support at the 20-day EMA around $4,440. As long as price holds above that zone, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

On the upside, a clean break and sustained acceptance above $4,650 would open the door toward the $4,700-$4,750 extension area. Only a decisive daily close below $4,440 would signal that the rally is transitioning into a broader consolidation phase rather than continuing its upward trajectory.

In earlier analysis, gold was identified as being in a momentum-driven bull phase supported by policy uncertainty and geopolitical stress, with pullbacks expected to remain shallow while macro risks persisted. Current price action continues to validate that framework, as gold extends higher without showing the technical or flow-based signals typically associated with a major top.

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