Gold nears $5,000 as Middle East tensions support demand

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Gold price nears $5,000 on haven demand.

Highlights

Spot gold rose about 0.2% to $4,989 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for April held near $5,008.60.
Safe-haven flows were supported by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with markets weighing the risk of broader military involvement.
The Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes reinforced a “higher for longer” bias for policy, with some officials open to additional tightening if inflation proves sticky.
The U.S. Dollar Index remained firm in the high-97 area, a backdrop that can cap follow-through rallies in bullion when rates and real yields drift higher.

Price action: $5,000 back on the radar

Thursday’s tape looked like a market trying to reassert upside control after this week’s sharp two-way volatility. Gold’s ability to trade back near $5,000 matters because the level often acts as both a magnet and a decision point: above it, trend-following flows tend to re-engage; below it, price can slip back into fast, mean-reverting ranges.

Gold price dynamics (January - February 2026). Source: TradingView.

The macro mix is unusually “two-handed” for gold right now. Geopolitics can lift safe-haven demand, while firmer yields and a steady dollar reduce the urgency to chase rallies. That push-pull dynamic is one reason price can look strong on the headline yet still struggle to extend cleanly in the next hour.

Macro backdrop: minutes, yields, and what comes next

The policy signal from the Fed minutes leaned cautious. Reporting on the release, the Financial Times noted officials warned inflation progress could be “uneven,” a framing consistent with keeping rates steady unless data clearly cools.

Rates markets reacted by pushing Treasury yields up after the minutes, though intraday moves were choppy as traders sized up how much hawkishness was already priced. The dollar, meanwhile, held above recent lows, with Reuters describing a market that sees little urgency for near-term cuts—and some openness to hikes if inflation stalls.The calendar keeps pressure on the next data points. Markets are watching U.S. GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report due Friday, both capable of moving yields quickly—and, by extension, the “opportunity cost” of holding non-yielding gold.

Technical setup: levels that matter into Friday

Rather than leaning on lagging indicators after a volatile week, traders are treating gold as level-driven:

Support zone: $4,980–$4,990

This area sits just below the latest spot reference point and often acts as a “dip-buy” shelf in strong tapes. A clean break below it would increase odds of a deeper retracement.

Deeper support: $4,950 area

If yields firm again, this is a logical downside checkpoint where buyers may test conviction.

Resistance zone: $5,010–$5,025

That band reflects the first area where sellers can reappear after a psychological level is tagged. If the price holds above it, the market may start discussing a broader retest of early-February highs.

Scenarios for the next 24 hours

Bullish scenario

Gold holds above the high-$4,980 and reclaims $5,000 decisively, with headlines sustaining a haven bid and yields failing to extend higher. In that setup, a push into the low-$5,020 becomes more plausible, especially if Friday’s data softens rate expectations.

Base case

Range trade dominates: price oscillates around $5,000 as geopolitical risk supports dips, while hawkish policy messaging limits breakout follow-through. Expect sharper, shorter intraday swings as liquidity reacts to headline bursts.

Bearish scenario

Yields continue to grind higher, and the dollar remains firm, shifting attention away from havens and back toward policy restraint. A slip back under the high-$4,980 would raise the odds of a test toward $4,950, with traders waiting for Friday’s data to decide whether the pullback is a reset or a reversal.

Gold recently posted a 1.24% decline with trend strength fading in thin trading. Low gold volume trade made the slide look steeper than usual.

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