+0.29% uptick for Nvidia stock — US import policy shift stirs uncertainty

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Nvidia up 0.29% at $190.20 today

Highlights

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump's prior emergency tariffs on February 20, 2026, creating immediate regulatory uncertainty in U.S. trade policy.
President Trump enacted a new 15% import tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, exposing Nvidia to heightened supply chain risks and cost inflation.
Nvidia trades at $190.20 above MA-20/50/200, with support at $186–$186.23 and resistance at $195, maintaining a bullish structure despite mixed momentum signals.

Regulatory upheaval heightens risk as Trump imposes rapid new tariffs

On Friday, February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's previous sweeping emergency trade tariffs, immediately introducing a period of significant legal and regulatory uncertainty around future U.S. trade policy. In response, President Trump rapidly enacted a new 15% across-the-board import tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, using executive authority that enables such tariffs for up to 150 days without congressional approval. This abrupt policy change has generated fresh confusion for companies like Nvidia, which rely on global supply chains, and exposed them to heightened risks of supply disruptions, cost inflation, and reduced cross-border market access. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions—including U.S. threats of military escalation against Iran and flashpoints in Taiwan and Gaza—further destabilize the trading environment and contribute to increased global market volatility, directly influencing the liquidity and financial risk profile of Nvidia. The lack of clarity over import refund rights and the prospect of further trade actions compound the operational and legal exposures for U.S. technology exporters.

Mixed technical signals as bullish trend faces overbought pressures

MACD signals continued upward momentum for Nvidia, though the ADX remains neutral, suggesting the trend is not particularly strong. RSI at 54.69 points to modest bullish momentum, but both Bull/Bear Power and Stochastic RSI indicate overbought conditions, showing buyers dominate intraday pressure. The Awesome Oscillator is a notable outlier, displaying a strong sell reading that diverges from other bullish signals. Trading opened with a gap up and is now consolidating mid-range after swings between $190.92 and $193.93, reflecting moderate intraday volatility and a tone of consolidation after initial strength.

Further price gains favored as consolidation signals potential breakout

Over the coming week, Nvidia is likely to trade within a volatility band of $186 to $195, in line with typical blue-chip price swings. There is a strong likelihood (over 80%) for continued price strength, supported by consistent bullish signals from major weekly indicators, while a significant decline appears less probable. The baseline scenario is for ongoing consolidation within this range, with potential for a bullish breakout above $195 on sustained momentum or a bearish move below $186 if overbought signals unwind and short-term support fails.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s technicals as supportive but not decisive for a strong move up. He believes policy and geopolitical risks are rising, and short-term indicators point to overbought conditions. As long as clarity on tariffs and global tensions is lacking, he expects choppy trading within the $186–$195 range. “Until macro risks subside or price firmly breaks $195, I remain cautious and avoid aggressive positioning.”

Last time, analysts noted that Nvidia's shares are trading firmly above major moving averages with a bullish price structure, underpinned by positive momentum and strong MACD but tempered by overbought readings on short-term oscillators. Despite some mixed signals and elevated momentum, current support is located near the Kijun line and key moving averages, while resistance remains in the upper $190 range, with a breakout above this level potentially leading to further gains.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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