0.90% for Nvidia stock — Trump enacts global tariff increase

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Nvidia gains 0.90% to $192.93 today

Highlights

The imposition of new 10%–15% U.S. tariffs and a Supreme Court ruling have created immediate uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, threatening Nvidia’s global supply chain access.
Escalating U.S.–China tensions and allegations of Nvidia chips being used by DeepSeek heighten the risk of tighter export restrictions on Nvidia’s China business amid broader geopolitical instability.
Nvidia trades bullishly at $192.93, above MA-20/50/200, with key support at $182.74 and a high 80% probability of consolidation between $188–$198 for the next five trading days.

Trade policy volatility and geopolitical turmoil drive risk to Nvidia's global access

On Monday, President Donald Trump imposed a new 10% tariff on all countries, subsequently raising it to 15% over the weekend, while the Supreme Court invalidated the previous year's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, creating immediate uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and introducing volatility that threatens Nvidia's access to global supply chains and international markets. Simultaneously, U.S.–China tensions have escalated after claims that Chinese startup DeepSeek trained its latest AI model using Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips despite U.S. export controls, raising the risk of tighter enforcement or new restrictions on Nvidia’s China business. The ongoing military threats involving Iran, as well as active conflicts across regions including Gaza, Africa, Venezuela, and heightened fears of conflict regarding Taiwan, increase macro geopolitical risk and could disrupt semiconductor supply routes or trigger regulatory responses that affect Nvidia’s operational and financial environment. Additionally, firm U.S. inflation data and ambiguous Federal Reserve policy have compounded regulatory unpredictability, impacting capital market access and investor risk appetite for technology stocks such as Nvidia.

Strong buyer momentum as overbought signals meet neutral trend confirmation

Momentum indicators show strong positive sentiment, with MACD on a buy signal and ADX neutral, confirming a present but not especially strong trend. Overbought conditions are visible in the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power, suggesting dominant buyer activity, while RSI and CCI point to an ongoing upward push without severe excess, and the Awesome Oscillator supports bullish strength. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $182.74 serves as immediate support.

High likelihood of further gains as upside breakout risk outweighs pullback

For the next five trading days, NVDA is likely to trade within a volatility band of $188 to $198, representing about ±2.5% from current levels. The probability of further price appreciation is very high (more than 80%), and downside risk remains limited. Baseline expectation is for consolidation between $188 and $198, with a sustained move above $198 potentially unlocking fresh upside and a breakdown below $188 accelerating profit-taking, though such a move appears less likely in the near term.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued technical strength in NVIDIA’s trend, but he remains cautious due to heightened macro and regulatory risks. He highlights geopolitical instability and evolving U.S. trade policy as key threats that could weigh on sentiment and potentially disrupt the current bullish setup. The analyst notes that momentum remains positive, yet upside is capped by overbought signals and persistent uncertainties. "Until $188 breaks decisively or the external risks ease, I remain defensive and would not chase further upside here."

Last time, analysts noted that NVIDIA shares are trading above all key moving averages with strong bullish momentum, as supported by positive MACD and supportive oscillators, while immediate support lies at the Ichimoku Kijun level. However, with overbought signals emerging on near-term indicators, some consolidation or sideways movement may precede any further breakout above the current volatility range.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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