What is behind Euro vs Dollar recent drop in value today

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Euro vs US dollar slides 0.88% today

Highlights

EUR/USD trades at $1.1609, remaining below MA-20 ($1.1812), MA-50 ($1.1794), and MA-200 ($1.1698), underscoring persistent downside momentum across all timeframes.
Bearish momentum dominates as MACD, ADX, and oversold oscillators (RSI 33.8, CCI -183.0) confirm sellers’ control despite near-term oversold readings.
A daily close below $1.1583 increases the probability of further declines toward $1.1400, with immediate resistance at $1.1698–$1.1800 and a very low (sub-20%) chance of reversal.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent technical weakness for EUR/USD. The price staying under all main moving averages signals strong seller control. Key momentum indicators show fading strength and deepening oversold levels. Absence of supportive news further undermines any recovery prospects. He warns, "The risk of deeper declines is significant while price sits below $1.1698 and sellers remain firmly in charge."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that despite current pressure, euro investors should watch for stabilization. He believes the currency is near a potential base, even after sharp markdowns. Absence of major news flow leaves the door open for a technical reset and possible new bullish setups if momentum turns. "Such oversold conditions can spark a reversal — a push above $1.1698 would start attracting renewed interest for EUR/USD," says Karapetjanc.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, recognizes the clear dominance of bears but focuses on the risk of a short-term squeeze from oversold levels. He highlights that traders may look for intraday rebounds near support at $1.1698, but overall sentiment remains fragile. He notes the technical setup leans negative unless swiftly reclaimed resistance triggers momentum shifts. "For now, risk management is key but nimble traders can look for quick, sentiment-driven bounces within the defined downside range," Turakhiya advises.

Bearish momentum deepens as oversold signals and weak trend converge

Momentum signals point to a bearish setup, with the daily MACD and ADX both signaling weak and declining momentum. Daily RSI (33.8) and CCI (-183.0) indicate oversold conditions, further confirmed by Stoch RSI. Bear Power (BBP) edges lower, highlighting sellers’ dominance within the session. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not reinforce the current trend. The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.1800 while immediate support aligns close to the MA-200 at $1.1698.

Previously it was reported that EUR/USD is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages and showing dominant bearish momentum, with the price pressured near key long-term support. Although several oscillators indicate oversold conditions and suggest a possible short-term rebound, the prevailing trend remains negative barring a decisive move above immediate resistance.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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