MercadoLibre stock price forecast: Sellers dominate as MELI trades near oversold territory

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MercadoLibre slides 4.08% to $1,704 today

Highlights

MercadoLibre reported strong full-year 2025 results with $28.89 billion in revenue and $1.997 billion in net income.
Eagle Capital Management acquired 411,549 MercadoLibre shares in Q4, while a subsidiary executive increased his holdings in February 2026.
MELI trades at $1,704.50, below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with major resistance at $1,998 and likely further declines based on uniform bearish technical signals.

Insider and institutional buying emerge after strong quarterly earnings

MercadoLibre reported fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $8.76 billion and net income of $559 million, while full year 2025 results reached $28.89 billion in revenue and $1.997 billion in net income. On February 27, 2026, Marcelo Melamud, a Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer at a MercadoLibre subsidiary, purchased 57 shares, increasing his holdings to 112 shares. Eagle Capital Management disclosed an acquisition of 411,549 shares during the fourth quarter.

Bearish momentum and oversold readings reinforce resistance near $1,998

MELI is trading well below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $1,998.12 acting as immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both indicate bearish momentum, with the MACD negative and directional strength weak. RSI stands at 32.73 and CCI at –146.93, placing the stock in oversold territory, though Stochastic RSI is more neutral. Bull/Bear Power highlights dominant seller pressure, with the Awesome Oscillator supporting the downtrend.

Limited rebound prospects as bearish indicators cap near-term upside

For the next five trading days, MELI is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $1,630 and $1,780. The probability of a price increase is very low, under 20%, as bearish signals remain uniform on the weekly RSI, MACD, and moving averages. The baseline scenario is for MELI to stay in a sideways corridor near current levels. A breakout above resistance at $1,998 would mark a bullish scenario, while persistent seller pressure could test support at $1,630 or lower.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that MercadoLibre continues to face broad technical resistance and seller pressure. He sees institutional accumulation as a positive factor and highlights that recent executive share purchases hint at internal confidence. However, all key momentum indicators and price levels point to a prevailing bearish scenario in the short term. The expert believes that buyer conviction is needed before sentiment can reverse decisively. "Though the downside persists, institutional actions and company fundamentals keep me watchful for a future turnaround if support holds and resistance at $1,998 is reclaimed."

Previously it was reported that MercadoLibre Inc. continues to face intensified bearish momentum, trading well below its key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, with technical indicators such as the MACD and ADX confirming a strengthening downward trend. Despite several oscillators indicating the asset is approaching oversold conditions, persistent selling pressure and dynamic resistance levels suggest limited immediate support, keeping overall signals decisively negative.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.