Euro vs Dollar: Weak momentum and oversold RSI support continued decline

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Euro vs Dollar drops 0.53% today

Highlights

EUR/USD trades under critical moving averages with bearish momentum prevailing across short, medium, and long-term horizons.
Oversold conditions persist, but selling pressure remains dominant as indicated by multiple momentum and intraday indicators.
The currency pair is projected to remain in a $1.1475–$1.1536 range over the next five days, with further downside likely unless support breaks or oversold signals trigger a corrective bounce.

Bearish momentum endures amid oversold signals and range-bound trade

Momentum signals remain weak, with the MACD in sell territory and the ADX neutral at low levels, indicating a lack of clear trend strength. Oversold readings on the RSI (just above 30), Stochastic RSI, and CCI highlight stretched downside conditions, but Bull/Bear Power’s negative value reflects persistent seller dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also reinforces the prevailing bearish tone. The Ichimoku Kijun stands at $1.1730, serving as immediate resistance above the current price. Support is identified near $1.1475, with the current price hovering near the session's low within a $1.1579 – $1.1640 range. Intraday volatility is moderate, and the tone remains decisively pressured after the open as downside momentum aligns with daily price action, though oversold signals suggest limited room for follow-through.

Sideways movement projected as downside risk outweighs rebound

For the next five trading days, the anticipated price range is $1.1475 to $1.1536, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a near-term price increase is very low (less than 20%), while a decline is more likely. The base scenario points to sideways movement within the $1.1475 – $1.1536 corridor. Upside would require a sustained break above the $1.1730 Ichimoku Kijun resistance, while further downside is possible if support at $1.1475 fails and oversold readings provide only a brief pause to selling momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside pressure on EUR/USD as technical signals remain weak and the pair trades well below major moving averages. He believes the oversold readings suggest some risk of short-term exhaustion, but seller control is still clear intraday. The analyst remains cautious and expects a sideways-to-lower bias within the $1.1475 – $1.1536 range. "Unless EUR/USD reclaims $1.1730, I see no reason to expect a lasting rebound."

Previously it was reported that EUR/USD remains under pronounced bearish pressure, trading below major moving averages while momentum indicators—including MACD, RSI, and CCI—signal persistent oversold conditions. Immediate resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun near $1.1800, with key support at the MA-200, as sellers continue to dominate amid subdued volatility.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.