Euro vs Dollar price prediction: Break below $1.14 could trigger selloff? EUR/USD loses ground

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Euro vs Dollar slides 0.52% today

Highlights

EUR/USD trades below key moving averages with persistent bearish momentum across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
Technical indicators, including MACD, ADX, and oversold oscillators, reinforce continued selling pressure without signs of extreme capitulation.
Price is likely to consolidate between $1.14 and $1.17, with upside probability under 20% and further downside risk if $1.14 breaks.

Negative momentum builds as key oscillators near oversold levels

Momentum remains negative for EUR/USD, with both the MACD and ADX indicators highlighting a bearish bias on the daily chart. RSI is at 32, and both CCI and Stoch RSI are close to oversold territory, which signals ongoing selling pressure without evidence of extreme capitulation. Bull/Bear Power confirms continued seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not contradict the prevailing negative signals. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.1703 acts as immediate resistance, with the daily pivot indicating no opening gap and the price near the session low following a moderate decline.

Range-bound outlook as upside limited by resistance

In the short term, EUR/USD is expected to remain in a $1.14 to $1.17 trading range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is assessed as very low (less than 20%), favoring consolidation near recent lows. Any bullish move would require a break above the immediate $1.1703 resistance, while renewed selling below $1.14 could trigger further declines toward new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued bearish pressure on EUR/USD as the pair remains below all major moving averages and technical signals stay negative. He notes little chance for a near-term reversal, with downside momentum dominant and no supporting news catalysts to shift sentiment. Cautious traders should watch the $1.14 support and the $1.1703 resistance level for any meaningful change in direction. "Base case remains downside consolidation — until $1.1703 breaks, I stay defensive on EUR/USD."

Last time, analysts noted that EUR/USD continued to trade below key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, with sustained downside pressure confirmed by negative momentum indicators including the MACD, ADX, and persistent oversold signals from the RSI and oscillators. Resistance is seen near the Ichimoku Kijun level, while sellers remain in control amid subdued volatility and no major support from moving averages in the current range.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.