Gold price prediction: Will $4,900 support hold as XAU trades below key averages?

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Gold slides 0.23% to $5,001 today

Highlights

Gold faces selling pressure due to diminished safe-haven demand as a stronger US Dollar and elevated Treasury yields persist.
Market consensus expects Federal Reserve rates to hold at 3.50–3.75% in March, limiting near-term upside for Gold despite strong ETF and central bank buying.
Gold trades below key short-term moving averages and faces intraday seller dominance, with a likely trading range of $4,900 to $5,150 over the next week.

Bullish flows offset by dollar strength and hawkish Fed outlook

On March 16, 2026, cooling safe-haven demand was reported for Gold following gains in the US Dollar and persistently high US Treasury yields. CME Group data showed that almost all market participants anticipated Federal Reserve interest rates to remain at 3.50–3.75% in March, which may limit further upside for Gold in the short term. Increased demand from ETF inflows and purchases by central banks was also noted, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Multiple oversold signals emerge as bearish momentum dominates intraday

Gold’s current price of $5,001.06 trades notably below the MA-20 ($5,141.70) and MA-50 ($5,069.95) but well above the MA-200 ($4,338.64). This configuration suggests downward pressure in the short and medium term while the longer-term trend remains underpinned by bullish structure. The Ichimoku Kijun at $5,192.18 is above the market, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators on D1 show a neutral tone: MACD is broadly flat, and ADX signals weak trend strength. Both RSI (42.95) and CCI (-127.49) are in mildly oversold territory, and Stoch RSI registers oversold conditions. BBP’s negative reading (-43.98) confirms seller dominance intraday. Today’s price drifted down $11.58 or 0.23%, opening with a slight gap up from the previous close but moving steadily lower to the lower end of today’s range. Volatility was moderate, with intraday tone dominated by seller pressure after the open. Oscillator signals are oversold but there is divergence, as short-term momentum is listless while longer timeframes remain bullish.

High odds for rebound as weekly momentum signals firm

Over the next five trading days, Gold is expected to move within a typical volatility band between $4,900 and $5,150. There is a very high probability (greater than 80%) of a price increase, with a decline considered much less likely, as key weekly indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50) point higher. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways movement between support near $4,900 and resistance at $5,150. A decisive breakout above $5,150 would open the way for a move toward the $5,200–$5,300 area, while a close below $4,900 would expose support near the MA-200.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees short- and medium-term technicals putting Gold under pressure, despite a still-bullish long-term picture. He notes that cooling safe-haven demand and firm US rates are capping any near-term rallies, while oversold signals suggest only reluctant support from buyers. The analyst remains cautious, pointing to the $5,150 resistance and $4,900 support as key boundaries for the coming days. "Until Gold breaks decisively above $5,150, I remain on the sidelines and see limited upside in the current environment."

Previously it was reported that gold’s short-term outlook appeared neutral to slightly bearish as momentum indicators weakened, while its long-term structure remained positive due to persistent macroeconomic risks. The current analysis adds depth to this outlook, highlighting a prolonged period of downward pressure but suggesting that any sustained move above $5,150 could signal a bullish reversal in the near term.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.