Tesla stock price forecast: Persistent selling as TSLA tests support near $370

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Tesla slides 1.86% to $373 today

Highlights

NHTSA escalated its probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles over Full Self-Driving system compliance but rejected a petition to recall 2.26 million cars, citing insufficient evidence of a broad defect.
Tesla reported its first annual revenue decline in 2025, posting $94.8 billion in sales and a 9% year-over-year drop in deliveries.
TSLA trades well below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum, and is expected to remain in a $365–$380 range amid continued selling pressure.

Regulatory scrutiny and revenue decline as growth pressures intensify

On March 19, 2026, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration escalated its investigation into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving systems over detection and compliance concerns. The regulator also rejected a petition to recall approximately 2.26 million Tesla cars, citing a lack of evidence of a broader safety defect. Tesla recently reported its first-ever annual revenue decline in 2025, with revenue down 3% to $94.8 billion and vehicle deliveries falling about 9% year-over-year. The company is also launching its Terafab semiconductor fabrication unit to secure chips for robotics and AI applications.

Persistent selling momentum as oversold signals deepen

Momentum indicators show persistent bearish sentiment for TSLA, with both the D1 MACD and ADX signaling continued selling momentum. RSI stands at 36.39, CCI at –219.84, and both Stoch RSI and BBP indicate an oversold market with seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the ongoing sell-off. Session price action has been volatile — the price opened almost flat but declined by 1.86%, currently near the session low of $370.05, confirming the prevailing bearish tone and aligning with momentum signals.

Downside risk favored as volatility narrows near critical support

In the short term, TSLA is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $365 to $380 over the next five days. The probability of upward movement is low, at less than 20%, making further decline more likely. The baseline scenario favors continued sideways movement in this corridor, while a decisive break above $380 would challenge immediate resistance but would require stronger momentum. A drop below $365 could indicate additional downside potential given the persistent negative signals and absence of support from higher timeframes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees persistent downside pressure on TSLA, with price action, technical momentum, and regulatory headwinds all aligned. Fundamental conditions remain tough after the company’s first-ever annual revenue decline and ongoing vehicle delivery weakness. Still, he believes Tesla’s move into semiconductor fabrication marks a bold strategy to secure its innovation edge. "Despite prevailing bearish sentiment, I am constructive on TSLA at these levels, as longer-term fundamentals and new initiatives could spark a turnaround if sentiment shifts."

Previously it was reported that analysts maintained a bearish outlook on Tesla due to persistent selling pressure and unresolved regulatory challenges. The current update reinforces this negative bias with fresh evidence of an oversold market and additional regulator scrutiny, making further downside the primary risk for traders as the $365 level emerges as a critical support to monitor.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.