Positive US jobs data strengthens dollar and keeps Gold trading flat

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Gold drops 0.03% today to $4,675

Highlights

Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz have sharply raised gold's geopolitical risk premium and volatility.
Strong central bank gold buying and France’s reserve repatriation signal shifting global reserve management despite Western ETF outflows and a stronger dollar.
Gold trades near $4,675 with short-term support around $4,650; technical indicators signal high probability of sideways to bullish movement toward $4,750 next week.

Geopolitical risk and central bank shifts deepen gold market volatility

Tensions between the United States and Iran, including recent military actions and threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply increased geopolitical risk and driven substantial volatility into gold markets. Central bank purchases, particularly by governments diversifying reserves, have sustained gold demand amid outflows from Western ETFs and periods of sharp price decline. Surging oil prices, triggered by the Middle East conflict, have accelerated inflation worries in major economies, prompting central banks such as the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of India to maintain or signal higher interest rates. Positive U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation pressures have further strengthened the U.S. dollar, reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. France has completed the repatriation and sale of its gold reserves previously held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, highlighting adjustments in global sovereign reserve management.

Mixed technical signals as weak momentum overrides narrow support

The price is holding above the MA-20 and the Ichimoku Kijun level ($4,648.00), but remains below the MA-50, pointing to support in the short term while selling pressure dominates over the medium term, with the longer-term trend still intact above the MA-200. Daily timeframe indicators show weak momentum: MACD signals a 'Strong Sell,' ADX remains in 'Sell' territory, and RSI at 43.77 biases toward selling, while Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral to mildly oversold and AO is neutral. BBP stands out as 'Overbought,' signaling some intraday buyer pressure, but this diverges from the broader bearish momentum, as XAU trades within a moderate volatility band between $4,603.42 and $4,705.66.

Range-bound price outlook as bullish weekly signals gain traction

XAU is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with typical volatility expected between $4,600 and $4,750 relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is high, with weekly indicators including RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50 in 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' territory. The baseline scenario is for sideways consolidation between the immediate support at $4,650 and resistance near $4,700. A breakout above $4,705 could target $4,750, while a fall below $4,648 may see heightened bearish momentum toward $4,600.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold trading in a tight range as increased geopolitical tensions and central bank actions keep fundamentals unsettled. He notes that weak technical momentum and bearish indicators outweigh the recent intraday buyer pressure. Kharitonov remains cautious, pointing to $4,650 as key support and $4,700–4,705 as resistance. "Base case remains sideways; until $4,705 is broken, I stay defensive and look for clearer confirmation before taking a directional stance."

In a recent review, analysts noted that ongoing volatility in gold prices has been reshaping both consumer and industry behavior, with a particular impact on jewelry markets and product strategies. The current technical setup, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions and evolving central bank activity, underscores the importance of monitoring the $4,705 resistance level as a potential inflection point for renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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