US Dollar vs Korean Won price prediction: Will ₩1,506 resistance hold as USD/KRW trades flat?

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US Dollar vs Korean Won slides 0.77%

Highlights

The Federal Reserve maintained a firm policy stance, providing no hints of imminent rate cuts due to persistent inflation and a strong U.S. job market.
Recent trading in USD/KRW reflected ongoing selling pressure, driven by unchanged U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic resilience.
USD/KRW faces short-term bearish momentum below key resistance at ₩1,506, with expected consolidation in the ₩1,480–₩1,515 range and a low probability of further declines.

Selling pressure extends as Fed signals no imminent policy shift

The Federal Reserve Board released new daily data on selected interest rates, including the effective federal funds rate and U.S. Treasury yields, as of April 6, 2026. No signals were provided regarding imminent rate cuts, with policy still guided by persistent inflation and a resilient U.S. labor market. Broader selling pressure has continued to shape trading on USD/KRW.

Divergent momentum signals as resistance holds and sellers emerge

Momentum signals for USD/KRW are mixed: the D1 MACD remains in "Strong Buy" territory, the ADX is moderately strong at 30.3, and both the HMA and short-term SMAs generate a clear "Sell" signal. The Stoch RSI (8.64) shows oversold conditions, while RSI sits in neutral-to-bullish territory at 55.44 and the CCI is near flat. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is overbought at 1.19, which contrasts with today's downward price action — signaling previous buyer dominance but recent control by sellers. The Awesome Oscillator does not confirm a clear trend. Immediate resistance is defined by the Kijun level at ₩1,506.12, while support is seen closer to the SMA-50 at ₩1,480.72.

High probability of consolidation as breakout thresholds define risk

Over the next five trading days, USD/KRW is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band of ₩1,480 to ₩1,515. The likelihood of an increase above current levels is high (above 80%), although further declines appear less likely in the immediate term. Price movement is favored to remain sideways in this corridor unless there is a close above ₩1,506, which would pave the way toward ₩1,515. Conversely, sustained drops below ₩1,480 would expose additional medium-term support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW caught in a short-term bearish phase despite a still bullish broader setup. He believes the lack of clear signals for U.S. rate cuts and ongoing inflation concerns keep sellers active, but the corridor between ₩1,480 and ₩1,515 remains intact for now. The analyst points to mixed momentum readings and warns that buyers need to reclaim the ₩1,506 level for further gains. "Until we see a convincing break above ₩1,506, the base case is for consolidation with downside risks not fully off the table."

Earlier, analysts noted that the USD/KRW pair was demonstrating persistent long-term strength despite signals of short-term exhaustion and heightened volatility. The latest shift in short-term momentum and mixed indicator signals underscores the importance of monitoring the ₩1,506 resistance and ₩1,480 support levels, as a breakout from this corridor could recalibrate the broader trend.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.