MSTR stock drops 3.07% as unrealized $14.46B loss on bitcoin holdings weighs

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Strategy drops 3.07% today to $123.77

Highlights

Strategy acquired 4,871 bitcoin for $329.9 million during early April 2026, increasing total holdings to 766,970 BTC.
New bitcoin purchases were funded by raising $174.6 million through equity sales, while a $14.46 billion unrealized loss weighed on Q1 results.
MSTR trades below major moving averages amid pronounced selling pressure, with a likely price range of $120.00–$129.00 and high risk of further downside.

Equity financing drives bitcoin purchase amid sustained unrealized losses

Strategy disclosed that between April 1 and April 5, 2026, it acquired 4,871 bitcoin for about $329.9 million at an average price of $67,718 per bitcoin, adding to its total holdings of 766,970 BTC, as reported in its April 6, 2026 SEC filing. These acquisitions were mainly financed through the sale of STRC preferred shares and MSTR common shares, producing net proceeds of $102.6 million and $72 million, respectively, via at-the-market equity programs in the same period. The company reported an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion on its bitcoin holdings for the first quarter of 2026 and recognized a $2.42 billion deferred tax asset, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold oscillators diverge from bearish momentum in volatile trade

Momentum signals on D1 are predominantly bearish, with both RSI (45.39) and MACD (–5.53) indicating downside pressure, and ADX (12.62) showing weak trend strength. Multiple oscillators highlight oversold conditions (Stoch RSI: “Strong Buy”, BBP and CCI both at “Oversold”), suggesting sellers dominate intraday momentum. AO confirms the negative trend. Today’s session opened with a slight gap down from the previous close ($127.69 to $125.32), and the price now sits near the low of the intraday range ($121.16 – $126.55), reflecting high volatility and marked pressure after the open. The intraday dynamics confirm the overall bearish momentum despite hints of exhaustion among sellers from oversold oscillators, a clear divergence between momentum and oscillator signals.

Downside risk remains dominant given persistent lack of buy signals

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $120.00 – $129.00, keeping current levels at the center and within a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further price decline is very high (more than 80%) given the lack of buy signals from weekly MA, RSI, ADX, and MACD, making a price bounce less likely. The baseline scenario is continued sideways movement between $120 and $129. A bullish scenario would require a rebound above $134.70 (SMA-20/Ichimoku resistance), but this appears less likely in the near term. A bearish scenario emerges if support near $120 is breached, opening room for deeper declines.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent downside risk for Strategy Incorporated as the price remains below all major moving averages and key resistance levels. Fundamental news on new bitcoin acquisitions and financing has failed to lift sentiment, while technical and momentum signals point to sustained selling pressure. He is cautious on any rebound scenario as oversold oscillators provide only limited support and broader trend indicators remain bearish. "Unless price regains $134.70, I remain defensive and see little justification for a bullish outlook."

Earlier, analysts noted that Strategy’s dominant position in corporate Bitcoin acquisitions contrasted with continued bearish momentum in its shares, signaling persistent downside risk. The latest data reinforce this negative outlook, as ongoing selling pressure and the absence of sustained buy signals place a spotlight on the $120 support as a critical level for potential further declines in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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